The Relegation Thread

[Bartonyellow]

All hinges on swansea v Southampton and Swansea v stoke for me. Can see stoke beating palace which would put them 1 point behind Swansea. ( assuming Swansea get nothing from Chelsea )

 

[AnkleBiter]

Palace are comfortably a better side than Stoke so I'd be surprised if they won that, but they'll likely be relegated that day if they don't.

Massive Bournemouth fan this weekend. It's their biggest derby isn't it?

 

[AFCB_Mark]

As I am sure Mark will confirm Bournemouth fans would like to help send Southampton down - hopefully their players agree.

With Swansea to play as well they have a say in this but reckon the Swans will get 6-7 points from the other games.

Stoke gone for me - Won't get anything at Liverpool and can they out score Palace and Swansea?

Palace are comfortably a better side than Stoke so I'd be surprised if they won that, but they'll likely be relegated that day if they don't.

Massive Bournemouth fan this weekend. It's their biggest derby isn't it?

Pretty interesting how things have turned out. With Stoke having so much to do, it's now basically between Swansea and Southampton for that final relegation place, we play Saints, then we play Swansea, then Saints play Swansea!

Our season has been basically dead for weeks now. For all the talk in the press from the club about breaking the points total we set last season, the edge has definitely gone from our game. At least having some indirect involvement in the relegation fight is keeping it alive for us fans, even if the players haven't appeared overly fussed (although they seemed to raise the effort a bit for Man United the other night). How the players will treat Saturday at St Marys I'm not sure.

Regarding this game, I just want to register an overdue win up there, especially after coming so close last season (missed an 85th minute penalty resulting in 0-0). Even scoring a goal there would be nice, as we haven't managed that in any games there since The Dell. That a win would have the knock-on effect of virtually relegating them is unfortunate for them. I wouldn't say I'm wishing relegation on them, I like having some competition with them. Though I wouldn't exactly shed any tears either if they did drop.

Can't help thinking all the Saints relegation talk around this game feels setup for a fall for us.

 

[Jamie_SFC]

Our players don't have any fight Mark, I can't see anything other than a Bournemouth win on Saturday.

 

[HarvSFC]

We won’t score another goal this season.

 

[Super_horns]

Stoke putting in a good shift at Liverpool but will a point be enough?

We are the only team outside the top 7 who have not been in the relegation zone at any point this season.

Huddersfield, Brighton and Leicester are next with one weekend .

 

[Jamie_SFC]

Well at least our result and Chelsea's result makes this shite dead league interesting for at least another week.

 

[AnkleBiter]

We've gone from being nearly there to relying on others. I think it's pretty simple, if Southampton win another game we're down. Swansea are obviously well in it too but I can see them getting the 2 points they need to scrape above us.

Southampton don't have an easy run in though. Despite the fan protests, Everton have been the best team outside the top 6 under Big Sam and have a really strong home record. And then Swansea v Southampton is a massive game where anything can happen. My hope is that Saints fail to win in their next 2 games and then need something at home to City on the final day... because we won't get any more points or goals from our games against City, Chelsea or Arsenal.

Stoke still in it, but can't see them beating in form Palace next week. Pretty much do or die for them though.

 

[Leewilson]

First update: 6-7 games left.
Second update: 5-6 games left
Third update: 4-5 games left
Fourth update: 3-4 games left
Fifth update: 2-3 games left

West Brom 28
Bournemouth (A) LOST
Burnley (H) LOST
Swansea (H) DRAW
United (A) WON
Liverpool (H) DRAW
Newcastle (A) WON
Spurs (H)
Palace (A)
Will they do it? Not a prayer
Update: They're gone
Update2: Still gone
Update3: Put themselves ba...nah they’re still gone.
Update 4: 3 unbeaten but almost mathematically impossible now.
Update 5: Credit to them for still being alive with 2 left. Have to win both but looking almost impossible with Swansea and Southampton still to play each other.

Stoke 30
Everton (H) LOST
Arsenal (A) LOST
Spurs (H) LOST
West Ham (A) DREW
Burnley (H) DREW
Liverpool (A) DREW
Palace (H)
Swansea (A)
Will they do it? No. They'll rue too many draws against sides around them.
Update: Going to need an upset somewhere or they'll be cut adrift
Update2: Keep losing tight games. Have to win of the next 2 to have any chance.
Update3: Might have just thrown away their last chance of survival with that draw. Need to win 3 of their last 4. Unlikely now.
Update 4: That's it for them I think. They just lose too many winning positions. Have to win all 3 really with their inferior goal difference. Not going to happen.
Update 5: Excellent point but probably not going to be enough. If they win both, they may well leap above Huddersfield. Whether they can overtake another with 36 and awful GD, I'm not sure.

Southampton 32
West Ham (A) LOST
Arsenal (A) LOST
Chelsea (H) LOST
Leicester (A) DRAW
Bournemouth (H) WON
Everton (A)
Swansea (A)
City (H)
Will they do it? It'll go to the last day for them.
Update: Still think they'll have a go in the last 4-5 games but may be too late.
Update2: Time is running out. 3 wins needed. Not sure from where.
Update3: Bottled survival with that last 30 minutes against Chelsea. Need at least 3 wins and have to start with an out of form Leicester or they're gone.
Update 3.5: Have to beat Bournemouth and Swansea to drag the latter into it.
Update 4: The extra game over Stoke gives them more of a chance. Probably have to take 7 from their next 3 though.
Update 5: Put themselves right back in it now. 1 win could be enough with Huddersfield looking unlikely to take another point this season. 4 would give them a real shot.

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Swansea 33
United (A) LOST
West Brom (A) DRAW
Everton (H) DRAW
City (A) LOST
Chelsea (H) LOST
Bournemouth (A)
Southampton (H)
Stoke (H)

Will they do it? Yes, but right to the wire.
Update: Think they have enough to grit out a few wins in the last 7.
Update2: Missed a big chance at the weekend. Going down to the final 3 games for them.
Update3: Just need that win to get themselves almost over the line. Will come down to the final two games if they don't win before then.
Update 4: Struggling with the tough run in. One win over Southampton or Stoke would be enough though if they don't win beforehand.
Update 5: No surprise really. Business begins now. 4 points from the final 3 should be enough. Could be comfortable by the final day or could be all on it. Very hard to call.

Huddersfield 35
Palace (H) LOST
Newcastle (A) LOST
Brighton (A) DRAW
Watford (H) WIN
Everton (H) LOST
City (A)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Will they do it? Plucky enough to scrape it. Need a cushion by final 2 games.
Update: Lost form. In big trouble now. Have to win in their next 2 or they're gone. Brighton match is season defining.
Update2: Watford is a must win or else they’re going to need an upset from somewhere.
Update3: Massive win. Might need another point or two from somewhere but 35 could be enough.
Update 4: Ideally need 1 more point to be sure. Everton represents their best chance of that.
Update 5: What a difference 2 games make. Celebrated like they were safe after Watford. Now look like they have to take something from the last 3 or they're gone. Arsenal on the final day could vary in difficult depending on whether they have a Europa final to come. I think they're going down unfortunately now.

West Ham 35
Southampton (H) WON
Chelsea (A) DRAW
Stoke (H) DRAW
Arsenal (A) LOST
City (H) LOST
Leicester (A)
United (H)
Everton (H)
Will they do it? Need at least a win from their next 2 home games or they're gone.
Update: Massive win today. Tough run in but they have another 2 wins in them.
Update2: A win against Stoke would all but keep them up. Defeat puts them back in it.
Update3: Got out of jail tonight as a Stoke win would have put them in trouble. Hard run in but points on the board will probably have them ok.
Update 4: Like Huddersfield, just need that 1 point to do it. Leicester away represents their best chance unless they want a nervy final game.
Update 5: Nothing certain here. However, I think courtesy of others they'll scrape it, maybe with a draw or two.

Brighton 36
Leicester (H) LOST
Huddersfield (H) DRAW
Palace (A) LOST
Spurs (H) DRAW
Burnley (A) DRAW
United (H)
City (A)
Liverpool (A)
Will they do it: Would like it secured in the next couple or could be a nervous ending.
Update: Could have badly done with taking something today looking at their run in. The Huddersfield game is huge. Loser will be in massive trouble.
Update2: I think 37 gets you safe. Need one hard fought win from somewhere to do it.
Update 3: Could quite clearly go the rest of the season without picking up another point. Will 35 points be enough? I think Stoke or Southampton will close the gap but can they overtake?
Update 3.5: Enormous point. Can Southampton get 8 points from 5 games. I'm going with no. That should be them alright now unless the Saints go on a late run.
Update 4: Almost there now. 36 might be enough. Another positive result would see them leave the thread.
Update 5: Grinding their way to safety. May not take another point but 37 will 95% be enough with their GD.

ESCAPED THE THREAD

Watford 38
Update2: Thought I should add them in although they’ll scrape up to 40 to end the season.
Update 3: 37 should be enough but they're bloody awful so they can stay here for a bit.
Update 4: 38 will be enough.
Update 5: No change.

Bournemouth 38
West Brom (H) WON
Watford (A) DREW
Palace (H) DREW
Liverpool (A) LOST
Man Utd (H) LOST
Southampton (A) LOST
Swansea (H)
Burnley (A)
Will they do it: No problem
Update: They're fine.
Update 2: SAFE
Update 3: No way are Stoke or Southampton hitting 38.
Update 4: No change.
Update 5: Not won for a while but still ok. Loss against Swansea could make it tight all of a sudden if Southampton win too.

Palace 38
Huddersfield (A) WON
Liverpool (H) LOST
Bournemouth (A) DRAW
Brighton (H) WON
Watford (A) DRAW
Leicester (H) WON
Stoke (A)
West Brom (H)
Will they do it? Yes, just!
Update: Don't help themselves by losing games they play well in, but others being poor should see them fine, just.
Update2: Just can’t pull away from it. Should do over the coming games.
Update3: Look more comfortable now. Have the fixtures to get up to around the 40 point mark and be more than fine.
Update 4: It's not been pretty but they're clawing their way to safety. Should finish 12th/13th I'd expect.
Update 5: Safe now. I don't see the 3rd bottom team going down on 38 with the fixtures still in play. Prepared to eat words if that ends up being the case.

Newcastle 41
Huddersfield (H) WON
Leicester (A) WON
Arsenal (H) WON
Everton (A) LOSE
West Brom (H) LOSE
Watford (A)
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)
Will they do it? Should be fine.
Update: Nearly there. Barring a collapse, no worries.
Update2: SAFE
Update 3: FLYING!
Update 4: Play Everton on Monday but already safe.
Update 5: On their holidays

 

[Super_horns]

On the 2 showings after they've won the league Man City aren't taking it easy so maybe bad news for Huddersfield and Southampton.

 

[gjb]

Anyone going to miss Stoke City?

 

[G.B]

only stoke fans.

glad brighton survived, now i just need huddersfield to step it up so i get at least one pre-season prediction correct

 

[Super_horns]

Oh dear - Southampton denied at the end in extra time of injury time!

Such heartbreak for them - now you feel they have got to win 2 games.

 

[Jamie_SFC]

We are down.

96th minute when 4 minutes were shown.

Fuck off referees.

 

[Jamie_SFC]

Oh and let's not forget about Redmond winning the ball in their corner fairly, player free in the box for a tap in but no, the referee gives a foul.

We've been shite this season but fucking hell we have had some shit decisions in 2018. That cheating c*** scoring with his hand for Watford, Alonso not seeing red for Chelsea and then playing apart in the 3 goals and once again today.

 

[Jamie_SFC]

We are down.

96th minute when 4 minutes were shown.

Fuck off referees.

Forgot about Cedric being down at the start of the stoppages....

 

[G.B]

unlucky but it's a minimum of added time

 

[AnkleBiter]

I've never celebrated another teams goal like that before. Makes such a massive difference to our prospects. Had Saints won we were gone... Swansea will surely get at least 2 points from their last 2 games.

Now we need Swansea to avoid defeat (ideally win) against Saints on Tuesday, leaving them needing a result against Man City on the final day. Even in the worst case scenario (Saints winning), goal shy Swansea would have to beat Stoke, which is likely but not guaranteed.

Tuesday is a fascinating game, Saints may be above atm but surely wouldn't be happy with a draw there, looking at the final day fixtures. Similarly, they daren't lose it.

And yes, I am ruling out us getting any more points!

 

[Jamie_SFC]

You'll get something at home to Arsenal.

 

[AnkleBiter]

Severely doubt it, our performances have lacked any kind of quality for a while now, probably because we don't have much!
Wenger's last game too, so it's far from a meaningless end of season fixture for Arsenal.

 

[Leewilson]

First update: 6-7 games left.
Second update: 5-6 games left
Third update: 4-5 games left
Fourth update: 3-4 games left
Fifth update: 2-3 games left
Sixth update: 1-2 games left

RELEGATED

Stoke 30
Everton (H) LOST
Arsenal (A) LOST
Spurs (H) LOST
West Ham (A) DREW
Burnley (H) DREW
Liverpool (A) DREW
Palace (H) LOST
Swansea (A)
Will they do it? No. They'll rue too many draws against sides around them.
Update: Going to need an upset somewhere or they'll be cut adrift
Update2: Keep losing tight games. Have to win of the next 2 to have any chance.
Update3: Might have just thrown away their last chance of survival with that draw. Need to win 3 of their last 4. Unlikely now.
Update 4: That's it for them I think. They just lose too many winning positions. Have to win all 3 really with their inferior goal difference. Not going to happen.
Update 5: Excellent point but probably not going to be enough. If they win both, they may well leap above Huddersfield. Whether they can overtake another with 36 and awful GD, I'm not sure.
Update 6: Rubbish. They have a solid squad yet Hughes grew incredibly stale and Lambert has managed just 1 win. Deserve to go down.

Still fighting

West Brom 31
Bournemouth (A) LOST
Burnley (H) LOST
Swansea (H) DRAW
United (A) WON
Liverpool (H) DRAW
Newcastle (A) WON
Spurs (H) WON
Palace (A)
Will they do it? Not a prayer
Update: They're gone
Update2: Still gone
Update3: Put themselves ba...nah they’re still gone.
Update 4: 3 unbeaten but almost mathematically impossible now.
Update 5: Credit to them for still being alive with 2 left. Have to win both but looking almost impossible with Swansea and Southampton still to play each other.
Update 6: How are they still alive? Unbelievable effort. Still need a miracle but to just be alive at this stage is remarkable.

Swansea 33
United (A) LOST
West Brom (A) DRAW
Everton (H) DRAW
City (A) LOST
Chelsea (H) LOST
Bournemouth (A) LOST
Southampton (H)
Stoke (H)

Will they do it? Yes, but right to the wire.
Update: Think they have enough to grit out a few wins in the last 7.
Update2: Missed a big chance at the weekend. Going down to the final 3 games for them.
Update3: Just need that win to get themselves almost over the line. Will come down to the final two games if they don't win before then.
Update 4: Struggling with the tough run in. One win over Southampton or Stoke would be enough though if they don't win beforehand.
Update 5: No surprise really. Business begins now. 4 points from the final 3 should be enough. Could be comfortable by the final day or could be all on it. Very hard to call.
Update 6: Poor form goes on. 1 win from the final 2 could be enough but would you back them to get it at present?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Southampton 33
West Ham (A) LOST
Arsenal (A) LOST
Chelsea (H) LOST
Leicester (A) DRAW
Bournemouth (H) WON
Everton (A) DREW
Swansea (A)
City (H)
Will they do it? It'll go to the last day for them.
Update: Still think they'll have a go in the last 4-5 games but may be too late.
Update2: Time is running out. 3 wins needed. Not sure from where.
Update3: Bottled survival with that last 30 minutes against Chelsea. Need at least 3 wins and have to start with an out of form Leicester or they're gone.
Update 3.5: Have to beat Bournemouth and Swansea to drag the latter into it.
Update 4: The extra game over Stoke gives them more of a chance. Probably have to take 7 from their next 3 though.
Update 5: Put themselves right back in it now. 1 win could be enough with Huddersfield looking unlikely to take another point this season. 4 would give them a real shot.
Update 6: Conceding in the 96th minute. That could be them done, especially with City on the final day. Must beat Swansea to have any chance.

Huddersfield 36
Palace (H) LOST
Newcastle (A) LOST
Brighton (A) DRAW
Watford (H) WIN
Everton (H) LOST
City (A) DREW
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)
Will they do it? Plucky enough to scrape it. Need a cushion by final 2 games.
Update: Lost form. In big trouble now. Have to win in their next 2 or they're gone. Brighton match is season defining.
Update2: Watford is a must win or else they’re going to need an upset from somewhere.
Update3: Massive win. Might need another point or two from somewhere but 35 could be enough.
Update 4: Ideally need 1 more point to be sure. Everton represents their best chance of that.
Update 5: What a difference 2 games make. Celebrated like they were safe after Watford. Now look like they have to take something from the last 3 or they're gone. Arsenal on the final day could vary in difficult depending on whether they have a Europa final to come. I think they're going down unfortunately now.
Update 6: Belting point away to City although it's nowhere near as meaningful as Southampton blowing a lead yesterday. A Swansea win or a draw midweek would give them a great chance. A Southampton win has them in trouble.

SAFE

West Ham 38
Southampton (H) WON
Chelsea (A) DRAW
Stoke (H) DRAW
Arsenal (A) LOST
City (H) LOST
Leicester (A) WON
United (H)
Everton (H)
Will they do it? Need at least a win from their next 2 home games or they're gone.
Update: Massive win today. Tough run in but they have another 2 wins in them.
Update2: A win against Stoke would all but keep them up. Defeat puts them back in it.
Update3: Got out of jail tonight as a Stoke win would have put them in trouble. Hard run in but points on the board will probably have them ok.
Update 4: Like Huddersfield, just need that 1 point to do it. Leicester away represents their best chance unless they want a nervy final game.
Update 5: Nothing certain here. However, I think courtesy of others they'll scrape it, maybe with a draw or two.
Update 6: Took advantage of Leicester's poor form. Big changes needed in the summer.

Brighton 40
Leicester (H) LOST
Huddersfield (H) DRAW
Palace (A) LOST
Spurs (H) DRAW
Burnley (A) DRAW
United (H) WON
City (A)
Liverpool (A)
Will they do it: Would like it secured in the next couple or could be a nervous ending.
Update: Could have badly done with taking something today looking at their run in. The Huddersfield game is huge. Loser will be in massive trouble.
Update2: I think 37 gets you safe. Need one hard fought win from somewhere to do it.
Update 3: Could quite clearly go the rest of the season without picking up another point. Will 35 points be enough? I think Stoke or Southampton will close the gap but can they overtake?
Update 3.5: Enormous point. Can Southampton get 8 points from 5 games. I'm going with no. That should be them alright now unless the Saints go on a late run.
Update 4: Almost there now. 36 might be enough. Another positive result would see them leave the thread.
Update 5: Grinding their way to safety. May not take another point but 37 will 95% be enough with their GD.
Update 6: Superb win and fully deserve to hit 40 points.

Watford 41
Update2: Thought I should add them in although they’ll scrape up to 40 to end the season.
Update 3: 37 should be enough but they're bloody awful so they can stay here for a bit.
Update 4: 38 will be enough.
Update 5: No change.
Update 6: Won.....at last!

Bournemouth 41
West Brom (H) WON
Watford (A) DREW
Palace (H) DREW
Liverpool (A) LOST
Man Utd (H) LOST
Southampton (A) LOST
Swansea (H) WON
Burnley (A)
Will they do it: No problem
Update: They're fine.
Update 2: SAFE
Update 3: No way are Stoke or Southampton hitting 38.
Update 4: No change.
Update 5: Not won for a while but still ok. Loss against Swansea could make it tight all of a sudden if Southampton win too.
Update 6: Ended their poor form to move above 40 points.

Palace 41
Huddersfield (A) WON
Liverpool (H) LOST
Bournemouth (A) DRAW
Brighton (H) WON
Watford (A) DRAW
Leicester (H) WON
Stoke (A) WON
West Brom (H)
Will they do it? Yes, just!
Update: Don't help themselves by losing games they play well in, but others being poor should see them fine, just.
Update2: Just can’t pull away from it. Should do over the coming games.
Update3: Look more comfortable now. Have the fixtures to get up to around the 40 point mark and be more than fine.
Update 4: It's not been pretty but they're clawing their way to safety. Should finish 12th/13th I'd expect.
Update 5: Safe now. I don't see the 3rd bottom team going down on 38 with the fixtures still in play. Prepared to eat words if that ends up being the case.
Update 6: Good for them. Hodgson's done a top job.

Newcastle 41
Huddersfield (H) WON
Leicester (A) WON
Arsenal (H) WON
Everton (A) LOSE
West Brom (H) LOSE
Watford (A) LOSE
Spurs (A)
Chelsea (H)
Will they do it? Should be fine.
Update: Nearly there. Barring a collapse, no worries.
Update2: SAFE
Update 3: FLYING!
Update 4: Play Everton on Monday but already safe.
Update 5: On their holidays.
Update 6: On the beers.

 

[AnkleBiter]

1 more point and we're there. So close... but two losses for us and a win each for Saints and Swansea would relegate us on GD, could certainly still happen.

Cmonnnn Swansea or draw on Tuesday!

 

[Super_horns]

Hm.. that goal drags Huddersfield into it now .

But if they get a draw in one of their next 2 games it's likely to be goodbye Swansea ?

 

[Pagnell]

Unless Swansea equalise you have to say West Brom are down. I can't see a 4-5 goal swing on the final day, even if they win and Southampton lose. Good try since Moore took over though. He deserves to try and get them back up.

 

[Jockney]

Unless Swansea equalise you have to say West Brom are down. I can't see a 4-5 goal swing on the final day, even if they win and Southampton lose. Good try since Moore took over though. He deserves to try and get them back up.

They are down mathematically if scores stay the same, doesn't matter about gd

 

[Pagnell]

Read the Guardian's app Prem table wrong. Wasn't updated live.

 

[AnkleBiter]

So if we lose to Chelsea (back in form) and Arsenal (Wenger's send off) and Swansea beat Stoke, we're down on GD. That'd be really tough to take.

I'm hopeful that Stoke will still be playing for pride, Lambert will want to keep the job and their performances haven't been that bad recently.

 

[Jamie_SFC]

Stoke fans seem pretty happy to lose Sunday's game 9-0 to bring us back into it.

 

[Super_horns]

Huddersfield have only been in the bottom 3 once all season ..

But might well get relegated now - has any team ever suffered such a fate before having never been in the relegation zone before the final day?

 

[Pagnell]

Huddersfield have only been in the bottom 3 once all season ..

But might well get relegated now - has any team ever suffered such a fate before having never been in the relegation zone before the final day?

I'm hoping their desperation to avoid such a fate will lead to a point tonight, it's all they need. The fact it will help us stop Chelsea overtaking us into the top 4 is purely incidental.

On a serious note, Huddersfield have a real shit end, and I can see them shipping 4-5 goals between Chelsea and Arsenal, especially with the latter being Wenger's final league game. It will be a real pisser if they end up going down on goal difference, I'd much sooner Stoke do a number on Swansea myself.