US Presidential election 2016

[Dr Mantis Toboggan]

carly fiorina missed managing-interns 101

 

[Tilbury]

Very high turnout again.

 

[Tilbury]

Christ. That's like something a Tea Party nutter would say. Was that Madeleine Albright? It looked like her.

Sanders on for the win in New Hampshire, it seems. But it's demographically good territory for him, so he'll have to win well to keep campaign momentum ging.

Yeh that's her. Very good demography and borders his home state, this result won't really tell us too much. Will be good to have a victory reported in the press however and keeps the momentum going.

 

[blade1889]

So Trump and Sanders seem to have run out even bigger winners than anyone imagined from what I can tell

Trying to understand how these primaries work and still failing (I think)...

• Depending on the % votes at each primary the candidates get assigned delegates that can't change their minds
• There are some 'super delegates' who can choose who they support and change their minds
• Some states have more delegates to give than others
• At the end the candidate with the most delegates gets put forward as the presidential candidate? Or is there some other super-big conference where that is decided and having more delegates just helps?

 

[SUTSS]

So Trump and Sanders seem to have run out even bigger winners than anyone imagined from what I can tell

Trying to understand how these primaries work and still failing (I think)...

• Depending on the % votes at each primary the candidates get assigned delegates that can't change their minds
• There are some 'super delegates' who can choose who they support and change their minds
• Some states have more delegates to give than others
• At the end the candidate with the most delegates gets put forward as the presidential candidate? Or is there some other super-big conference where that is decided and having more delegates just helps?

It's slightly different between the two parties to my understanding. The Democrat delegates are not bound by who they are assigned to but the Republicans are I think. Superdelegates only exist in the Democrats but the Republicans do have unpledged delegates. When a candidate withdraws they can release there delegates. It is officially decided at the party conventions but usually there has been agreement before this and the convention is used to launch the candidate rather than announce them.

Different states do things differently and it's all a little confusing.

 

[blade1889]

It's slightly different between the two parties to my understanding. The Democrat delegates are not bound by who they are assigned to but the Republicans are I think. Superdelegates only exist in the Democrats but the Republicans do have unpledged delegates. When a candidate withdraws they can release there delegates. It is officially decided at the party conventions but usually there has been agreement before this and the convention is used to launch the candidate rather than announce them.

Different states do things differently and it's all a little confusing.

so even if you got more delegates in the primaries there could be an agreement or decided at the conventions that you wont be the candidate?

 

[.V.]

It's slightly different between the two parties to my understanding. The Democrat delegates are not bound by who they are assigned to but the Republicans are I think. Superdelegates only exist in the Democrats but the Republicans do have unpledged delegates. When a candidate withdraws they can release there delegates. It is officially decided at the party conventions but usually there has been agreement before this and the convention is used to launch the candidate rather than announce them.

Different states do things differently and it's all a little confusing.

There's talk of people trying to convince Romney to make a play at the GOP convention, if Trump wins the nomination.

 

[blade1889]

There's talk of people trying to convince Romney to make a play at the GOP convention, if Trump wins the nomination.

What does that mean? If Trump wins in the primaries Romney could turn up at the convention and try to stake a claim to the presidency?

 

[.V.]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...2574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html

 

[blade1889]

Cheers, get the gist of it but not sure where Romney would come in to it?

 

[Tilbury]

Interesting bit for me: Even though NH has a smaller % of minorities than the national average Bernie picked up *49% of their votes. Considering he wasn't doing well with these groups this could be important, especially going into Nevada and South Carolina which are very ethnically diverse.
*50% even.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

Can only assume this is an ironic commentary on the "make a TV ad" task in The Apprentice.

 

[.V.]

Cheers, get the gist of it but not sure where Romney would come in to it?

Can only assume this is an ironic commentary on the "make a TV ad" task in The Apprentice.

But shutting down the government is a perfectly grown up thing to do.

 

[Christian Slater]

So Trump and Sanders seem to have run out even bigger winners than anyone imagined from what I can tell

Trying to understand how these primaries work and still failing (I think)...

• Depending on the % votes at each primary the candidates get assigned delegates that can't change their minds
• There are some 'super delegates' who can choose who they support and change their minds
• Some states have more delegates to give than others
• At the end the candidate with the most delegates gets put forward as the presidential candidate? Or is there some other super-big conference where that is decided and having more delegates just helps?

I think both were expected to win big. Sanders had to win NH otherwise it'd have been over for him. I think the major surprise is now how well Sanders is doing in the demographics.

 

[SUTSS]

Can only assume this is an ironic commentary on the "make a TV ad" task in The Apprentice.

They need to learn from the Irish/

 

[Alty]

Still a mountain to climb for Sanders given his polling figures in other states, but the scale of the victory in NH bodes well. Part of what may have been holding his numbers down elsewhere is a lack of belief that he can win, but such a big victory over Clinton may get a few people thinking that maybe he really is popular enough to win a Presidential election. Especially if he's up against a mad candidate...

...which brings me neatly on to the Republican result. Wow. Trump's popularity is just...*sigh*...what can you say? Mind you, not a foregone conclusion yet. NH perhaps a good demographic for him. Iowa is very religious and it went for Cruz. Perhaps in some of the other Southern States Cruz will still perform better.

Heartening to see Kasich doing quite well though. Definitely the most sane and serious of the people left in the Republican race. Perhaps he can take over from Rubio (who had an awful result after a piss-poor debate performance) and Bush (who I'm convinced doesn't want to be there but who feels he has to continue due to all the money people have invested in his campaign) as the 'establishment' candidate.

 

[SALTIRE]

Good article on why American's back fearmongerers, religious zealots and xenophobe's in the past, which is relevent to why Trump is so popular at this time.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/13/american-politics-election-voters-suckers

 

[Tilbury]

Sad and interesting twist; 79 year old Justice Scalia passed away today. Leaves the supreme court equally balanced between liberals and conservatives. The question is will Obama be able to appoint his choice (basically will the republican senate allow him) in the next year or so left of his term.
Cruz has already come out and said it should be blocked until the next president takes office.

 

[blade1889]

It is interesting...either replaced pre or post election hopefully it isn't a like for like replacement, that would be sad.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

He was QUITE AWFUL

 

[Destruction]

I think this happened in an episode of The West Wing.

 

[Mr. Scruff]

Nothing sad about it.

The mans views were abhorent

The west wing episode dessy mentions is brilliant. One of the best in the entire series.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

Best debate yet tonight. Like the Royal Rumble but good.

 

[Tilbury]

Nothing sad about it.

The mans views were abhorent

The west wing episode dessy mentions is brilliant. One of the best in the entire series.

That's true, I withdraw my sympathy.

 

[Martino Knockavelli]

Masterpiece

 

[Jockney]

Masterpiece

Cos like Mike Judge and the Geto Boys, Hillary is a 90s anachronism?

 

[AFCB_Mark]

 

[Tilbury]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/02/17/topnv1.pdf
Latest poll for Nevada:
Clinton 48; Sanders 47.
Trump 45; Rubio 19; Cruz 17; Carson 7; Kasich 5; Bush 1.
2 days.

 

[blade1889]

Meant to be a stronghold for Clinton wasn't it and not particularly great place for Trump? Or am I remembering incorrectly!?

 

[Alty]

Meant to be a stronghold for Clinton wasn't it and not particularly great place for Trump? Or am I remembering incorrectly!?

South Carolina is where she's much stronger than Sanders. Mind you, I think she was still expecting to win Nevada reasonably comfortably.