Who will be in the top 7

[Robshep]

They are 6 points behind third, and on good form since their Jan signings, no reason for them not to carry that on.

They have a point a game average versus top 12 teams. They have 9 games against them so probably need to win 7 of their 8 games against bottom 12 sides. They are not Manchester City. Why are you so obsessed with Bolton getting promoted when you support a team that is 24th. Strange priorities. Worry about your own clubs prospects.

 

[Carver]

Carlisle WILL be back!

We could be on 58 points right now and running away with it.

So let's see where we are when our games in hand are played and when we're back to crushing teams.

 

[Vanni]

In no particular order -

Top 3 - Tranmere, FGR and Cheltenham

4th and 5th - Cambridge and Salford

6th and 7th - two from Exeter, Carlisle and Bolton

Chill masi. There's no need to shoot me.

 

[Boz]

In no particular order -

Top 3 - Tranmere, FGR and Cheltenham

4th and 5th - Cambridge and Salford

6th and 7th - two from Exeter, Carlisle and Bolton

Chill masi. There's no need to shoot me.

You don’t think Cambridge are going to stick up there then? I’ve not seen you play this season, but have been steady in terms of results.

The best sides I’ve seen are Carlisle Cheltenham and Forest Green, though the side who best tactically exploited our frailties were Walsall with little chance of top 7. Still fairly confident of Rovers making the top 7 but keeping my powder dry on the automatics for now.

 

[Gladders]

They have a point a game average versus top 12 teams. They have 9 games against them so probably need to win 7 of their 8 games against bottom 12 sides. They are not Manchester City. Why are you so obsessed with Bolton getting promoted when you support a team that is 24th. Strange priorities. Worry about your own clubs prospects.

If making one post with a prediction of them being top 3 and then replying to someone who asked why that prediction makes me obsessed with them then so be it.

From the outside it looks like you're the one obsessed

 

[masi51]

In no particular order -

Top 3 - Tranmere, FGR and Cheltenham

4th and 5th - Cambridge and Salford

6th and 7th - two from Exeter, Carlisle and Bolton

Chill masi. There's no need to shoot me.

no i can see that.....would not disagree with any of your picks

 

[SVH]

In no particular order -

Top 3 - Tranmere, FGR and Cheltenham

4th and 5th - Cambridge and Salford

6th and 7th - two from Exeter, Carlisle and Bolton

Chill masi. There's no need to shoot me.

We are getting higher and higher on your predictions. I would like to see you revisit this in a few weeks.

Cheltenham have major injury problems now don't they?

 

[SVH]

Carlisle WILL be back!

We could be on 58 points right now and running away with it.

So let's see where we are when our games in hand are played and when we're back to crushing teams.

Yes you COULD have been but you aren't. We won't see all games in hand completed until 27th April. Leading up to that date you have to play Tranmere, Oldham, Morecambe, Bradford, Mansfield, Cambridge, Newport, Bolton and Cheltenham. You need to go on some run.

 

[Si Robin]

We are getting higher and higher on your predictions. I would like to see you revisit this in a few weeks.

Cheltenham have major injury problems now don't they?

3 main players in midfield and arguably our best defender (this season at least).

That being said, we've been struggling with injuries in midfield all season, and seem to be working through it. Would like to see Liam Sercombe back though.

 

[masi51]

3 main players in midfield and arguably our best defender (this season at least).

That being said, we've been struggling with injuries in midfield all season, and seem to be working through it. Would like to see Liam Sercombe back though.

I can now see Cheltenham dropping out of the play off places along with Morecambe and Newport
Quite simply your squad is being stretched now and its not going to get better

 

[AldosShimmy]

I've been doing some research (as I stand to net at least 6.5k if Tranmere win the league)

PPG standings would be as follows (max points poss from games remaining)

Carlisle 90 (106)
FGR 84 (105)
Cambridge 79 (101)
-------------------
Cheltenham 77 (101)
Tranmere 74 (99)
Salford 74 (99)
Exeter 73 (100)
------------------
Morecombe 73 (97)
Newport 72 (98)
Crawley 65 (95)
Bolton 65 (92)
Orient 64 (93)
Bradford 63 (94)
Scunthorpe 60 (92)

Mansfield are probably way too leftfield to consider now

However, when you base PPG off 10 game form so all points up until 10 games ago, then points for remainder of season based on last 10 game form the table looks massively different

Cambridge 86
Bradford 81
FGR 80
----------------
Carlisle 79
Tranmere 77
Salford 77
Cheltenham 72
----------------
Morecombe 72
Exeter 68
Bolton 68
Scunthorpe 64
Newport 57
Crawley 54

So it looks ball park 86 points to win it, around 80 for the autos and around 73 for the playoffs. These may actually be lower in reality given the pick up in form of several midtable teams.

I'm sure Masi will find an argument that Bolton can still make the autos despite meaning they can probably only drop 12 points between now and the end of the season.

I'm working on a google sheets database I can share with all teams fixtures for the season on with updated end of season point calculations if anyone wants a copy I will post the link when I have finished the fixtures for all teams.

I'll post an updated PPG and 10 game form PPG table after each round of fixtures in here too

 

[chipmunx]

PPG would relegate Southend and Grimsby - so yeah we'll go for that

 

[AldosShimmy]

PPG would relegate Southend and Grimsby - so yeah we'll go for that

Barrow stay up on 10 game form PPG too

 

[masi51]

I've been doing some research (as I stand to net at least 6.5k if Tranmere win the league)

PPG standings would be as follows (max points poss)

Carlisle 90 (106)
FGR 84 (105)
Cambridge 79 (101)
-------------------
Cheltenham 77 (101)
Tranmere 74 (99)
Salford 74 (99)
Exeter 73 (100)
------------------
Morecombe 73 (97)
Newport 72 (98)
Crawley 65 (95)
Bolton 65 (92)
Orient 64 (93)
Bradford 63 (94)
Scunthorpe 60 (92)

Mansfield are probably way too leftfield to consider now

However, when you base PPG off 10 game form so all points up until 10 games ago, then points for remainder of season based on last 10 game form the table looks massively different

Cambridge 86
Bradford 81
FGR 80
----------------
Carlisle 79
Tranmere 77
Salford 77
Cheltenham 72
----------------
Morecombe 72
Exeter 68
Bolton 68
Scunthorpe 64
Newport 57
Crawley 54

So it looks ball park 86 points to win it, around 80 for the autos and around 72 for thew playoffs.

I'm sure Masi will find an argument that Bolton can still make the autos despite meaning they can probably only drop 12 points between now and the end of the season.

I'm working on a google sheets database I can share with all teams fixtures for the season on with updated end of season point calculations if anyone wants a copy I will post the link when I have finished the fixtures for all teams.

nope our team is simply not good enough for Automatic promotion though i think we will make the play offs
The teams with decent squads will make the top 7. Pre Christmas Newport were proberbly the best team in the league.....they are now a shadow of themselves. Morecambe lost some decent players Adam Phillips is a massive loss. Cheltenham are being hit with injuries which will get worse playing tues, Sat for the rest of the season.
Think Salford,FGR, and Carlisle will go up

 

[Si Robin]

What part of "we've been struggling with injuries in midfield all season" don't you understand.

This isn't anything new for us. The same midfield from Saturday won last Tuesday away at Walsall.

Keep clutching at those straws, we'll maintain our position in the top 7, I'm confident of that.

 

[masi51]

What part of "we've been struggling with injuries in midfield all season" don't you understand.

This isn't anything new for us. The same midfield from Saturday won last Tuesday away at Walsall.

Keep clutching at those straws, we'll maintain our position in the top 7, I'm confident of that.

Fair enough.....carry on

 

[Chris FGR]

We've been very lucky with injuries so far, touch wood, don't have a lot of depth but have been able to pick a settled team fr most of this season.

 

[shoddycollins]

Barrow stay up on 10 game form PPG too

Would be poetic for Barrow to stay up on PPG now.

 

[shoddycollins]

We've been very lucky with injuries so far, touch wood, don't have a lot of depth but have been able to pick a settled team fr most of this season.

That's one the things that's gonna cost us I feel. We won't be able to play a settled team Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday for three months.

 

[Kendalcufc]

Yes you COULD have been but you aren't. We won't see all games in hand completed until 27th April. Leading up to that date you have to play Tranmere, Oldham, Morecambe, Bradford, Mansfield, Cambridge, Newport, Bolton and Cheltenham. You need to go on some run.

Strange post. Why only pick out those teams?

We also have games against Colchester, Grimsby, Stevenage, Orient x2, Crawley, Southend, Scunthorpe, Barrow, Vale, Harrogate and Walsall.

To reach 82 points (usually enough) we need a record of 12 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from our remaining 21 games.

Tough, but far from needing to "go on some run".

 

[SVH]

Why is that a strange post? I'm highlighting the big games you have and you need to go on some run to do what Carver has said you will do.

Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday. Geographical location, travel etc etc etc. Your players are going to be shattered so yes if will be some run for you to finish on 82 points.

 

[Carver]

Why is that a strange post? I'm highlighting the big games you have and you need to go on some run to do what Carver has said you will do.

Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday. Geographical location, travel etc etc etc. Your players are going to be shattered so yes if will be some run for you to finish on 82 points.

You're in a false position right now mate, it's us who are really top.

 

[shoddycollins]

Two Carvers anyone?

 

[Kendalcufc]

Why is that a strange post? I'm highlighting the big games you have and you need to go on some run to do what Carver has said you will do.

Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday. Geographical location, travel etc etc etc. Your players are going to be shattered so yes if will be some run for you to finish on 82 points.

Your post made it seem like we had a really difficult run-in when the truth is that we've pretty much got every team still to play.

You listed 9 games. We COULD lose 6 of those, draw 3 and still win promotion by winning the other 12 games. That's not how football works, but it doesn't work in the way you've mentioned either.

So far this season we've averaged 1.72 points per game, doing that for a full season works out at 79 which is borderline automatic promotion.

I've got zero idea why geography would make us lose games. Fair enough we have to play every Saturday and Tuesday, but to me when in good form you want games to come thick and fast.

We've had a slight 4 game sticky patch with games against Exeter, Salford and Forest Green (won 1, drew 1 and lost 1 which is a solid return). We've only let 1 goal in from open play in those games as well which isn't too shabby.

We have to maintain what we've already proven to be capable of achieving. It's called promotion form, we've done it for 25 games, we need to carry it on for another 21 games.

Far from easy but then winning promotion never is easy.

 

[Kendalcufc]

Leading up to the end of the season Cambridge have to play Cheltenham, Bolton, Oldham, Forest Green, Carlisle, Morecambe, Tranmere, Exeter and Newport. To get 82 points you need to win 9 draw 3 and lose 4 from your 16 games. Looks like you need to go on some run.

 

[Chris FGR]

Would be poetic for Barrow to stay up on PPG now.

What rhymes with PPG?

 

[masi51]

What rhymes with PPG?

Paris St Germain !

 

[SVH]

Leading up to the end of the season Cambridge have to play Cheltenham, Bolton, Oldham, Forest Green, Carlisle, Morecambe, Tranmere, Exeter and Newport. To get 82 points you need to win 9 draw 3 and lose 4 from your 16 games. Looks like you need to go on some run.

Yes we do but we are doing that run over a relatively normal time frame with only four midweek games. You have 9 games in 30 days so no midweek break between now and 10th April. I mentioned your geographical location because midweek away games will eat into your preparation for the next game on Sat, your travel time to and from those away games will affect you too.

I would understand if you could see my point and disagree with it but you are struggling to grasp my point.

 

[Vanni]

You don’t think Cambridge are going to stick up there then? I’ve not seen you play this season, but have been steady in terms of results.

The best sides I’ve seen are Carlisle Cheltenham and Forest Green, though the side who best tactically exploited our frailties were Walsall with little chance of top 7. Still fairly confident of Rovers making the top 7 but keeping my powder dry on the automatics for now.

I would be disappointed if we were to drop out of the top 3 but if we did I could never honestly say I didn't see it coming. Bonner has build a very good side and we've been playing some nice stuff but we do have a rather small squad when compared to the sides at the top end of the table. For instance Bonner was forced to start quite a few first team regulars in the Pizza cup games because he had no other choice.

Then there's the fact that some players in our squad are simply pivotal to the side (or perhaps I should say pivotal to the way we tend to play because I'm sure the Tranmere fans didn't think Mullin was undroppable and probably the Macc fans as well if you talk to them about Joe Ironside). I dread to think about the possibility that we may well lose to injury some of these players like the two aforementioned players and others like Knoyle and Dunk, at some point or other at this late stage of the season.

In short, my major concern is that we don't have adequate back ups. And then there's also the, by now, well known fact that Hoolahan cannot play every single match and has to miss out on the midweek games.

 

[Kendalcufc]

Where exactly do you think Carlisle is on the map? It doesn't take 48 hours to drive back from Stevenage.

Tuesday night play a game of football, coach home, day off Wednesday, then training Thursday and Friday. Pretty bog standard preparation. With the continued rhythm of games we also don't have to train as intensively to keep our fitness up. I believe that we have the squad depth to handle it, we also may not handle it, that's to be seen.

I understand your point, however I think that your point is based on a weak mentality that plagues modern football. Promotion challengers should not allow such thoughts to enter their heads. Thankfully Chris Beech is already on record as saying that he can't wait to get stuck into all the remaining games and no excuses will be made about "fixture congestion".

If we can't face up to a Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday schedule then our players don't deserve to call themselves professional athletes.