European Union Referendum

[JoeJoeJoeJoe]

I find it slightly worrying in that video that the most optimistic he is about our GDP falling is that it only falls by 1%. That's no small number.

Time will only tell if long term we bounce to levels higher than were predicted before.

We spend 0.37% of our GDP on the EU to put that into perspective.

 

[Kopper]

From the guardians comments section: (I don't know by whom. I copied it from another forum who took it from a Facebook thread.)

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

This is a great post.

I hadn't put it together, what the Prime Minister's resignation meant for his successor. Unfortunately I don't follow the news like I once did.

Boris has no choice but to start the article 50 process. He has to hope when he does he can negotiate a decent settlement with Europe. Otherwise he'll (as PM) have to convince the public the severe cuts his chancellor is implementing are temporary measures caused by brexit. No doubt he can spin this as the EU punishing Britain for their democratic decision. Spirit of Dunkirk might get a mention.

If Boris plays it right he could grab the UKIP voters and the disaffected Labour vote. Given the circumstances Boris will have go for divide and conquer. He'll need to dig up Maggie's playbook for the finer points. The "heal the nation" rhetoric can be wheeled out at general elections and on university campuses.

The Brexiters say they're prepared for the short term ramification of leaving the EU. Although it's the long term ones they have to be worried about.

 

[CEngelbrecht]

I give you Duncan-Smith, Gove, and Johnson, of "Brexit."

Quelle tragédie...

 

[CEngelbrecht]

I can only imagine this must be what Boris Johnson feels like now:

 

[Cheese & Biscuits]

Johnson and Gove both absent from the Commons today. Bloody cowards.

 

[TheArtfulDodger]

Johnson and Gove both absent from the Commons today. Bloody cowards.

What are they actually doing at the moment? It's odd.

 

[CEngelbrecht]

What are they actually doing at the moment? It's odd.

If they have any redeeming qualities, they're grindin' their noggin for damage control.

 

[JJ1532]

Johnson and Gove both absent from the Commons today. Bloody cowards.

Think I saw something that said Johnson was at his countryside home. Probably preparing his leadership bid, which isn't all that surprising to be honest. Wouldn't be surprised if Gove is with him.

 

[silkyman]

Fucking coward.

It's all going well, anyway.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...eak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36644211

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

Fucking coward.

It's all going well, anyway.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...eak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36644211

Short sighted mate, #longtermgains

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

Since the old have voted for this i personally think with the finances crumbling the old should take the first burdens.

Think one of the first things we should now be capping is the free bus passes, etc, etc to only be for them who cannot afford it. Them older people with a decent bit of money or decent enough pension from now on should be paying their way.

 

[Ebeneezer Goode]

The UK has been increasingly free of European socialism over the last five years, and the result is a lack of job security, dismal wages, increasing costs, practically nonexistent welfare, people literally starving to death, and a general feeling of hopelessness and disenfranchisement.

Someone is living in a cartoon world.

 

[redjed]

If the Tories do not activate Article 50, at the next election they are opening the doors to ukip, to form the next government, there are a lot of anti EU supporters to change British politics for years to come!

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

I think anyone imagining that UKIP might be forming the next government may also possibly be living in a cartoon world.

 

[Look Out There Are Llamas]

I think anyone imagining that UKIP might be forming the next government may also possibly be living in a cartoon world.

I would say I agree, but with Trump, Corbyn and Brexit I'm almost starting to think nothing would really surprise me.

 

[Camborne Gills]

I give you Duncan-Smith, Gove, and Johnson, of "Brexit."

Quelle tragédie...

What are you actually talking about here? You seem to have spouted a lot of ill informed and ill educated bile.

 

[Aber gas]

What are you actually talking about here? You seem to have spouted a lot of ill informed and ill educated bile.

He's entitled to his opinion, even if it's getting a bit weird. So how are you feeling about getting rid of all the foreign types? Elated I'd imagine.

 

[CEngelbrecht]

He's entitled to his opinion, even if it's getting a bit weird.

Well, as long as it's only "a bit"...

 

[Aber gas]

Well, as long as it's only "a bit"...

Yeah, don't go full "weird"

 

[Camborne Gills]

He's entitled to his opinion, even if it's getting a bit weird. So how are you feeling about getting rid of all the foreign types? Elated I'd imagine.

Aber, I never suggested that we get rid of all the foreign types as you put it, I simply said that I was fed up with hearing a different array of accents in my home town. I would also like to point out that I was sickened by the story of the boy in Huntingdon (Cambs), who had basically received a get out of our country calling card. If people were really that that bothered by his and his family's presence, why did he not get the card before the referendum vote?

 

[Aber gas]

Aber, I never suggested that we get rid of all the foreign types as you put it, I simply said that I was fed up with hearing a different array of accents in my home town. I would also like to point out that I was sickened by the story of the boy in Huntingdon (Cambs), who had basically received a get out of our country calling card. If people were really that that bothered by his and his family's presence, why did he not get the card before the referendum vote?

Because they're cowards and utter scum. They'll get theirs eventually.

 

[Aber gas]

I'm not sure what to say to you Camborne. You're experience and views are so opposed and different to mine. I'm a child of immigrants and see immigration as positive. You see if as something to be feared and opposed.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

I am sure it will be agreed that we enter into the EEA and keep Freedom of Movement. Even I don't think Parliament will be stupid enough to sacrifice a Free Trade arrangement in order to restrict Freedom of Movement. It will get to the point where the economy becomes more important and has to be put first. At least for the next 5 to 10 years or so.

However, it will give UKIP a massive mandate in the next General Election, but even still, I don't think they would win enough seats to change it

 

[Aber gas]

I am sure it will be agreed that we enter into the EEA and keep Freedom of Movement. Even I don't think Parliament will be stupid enough to sacrifice a Free Trade arrangement in order to restrict Freedom of Movement. It will get to the point where the economy becomes more important and has to be put first. At least for the next 5 to 10 years or so.

However, it will give UKIP a massive mandate in the next General Election, but even still, I don't think they would win enough seats to change it

It doesn't give them a mandate at all. If anything it negates them. The only way they survive is as some sort of weird Ligue nord.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

It doesn't give them a mandate at all. If anything it negates them. The only way they survive is as some sort of weird Ligue nord.

If the Government chose EEA with Freedom of Movement attached instead of a total exit (EU will say its EEA or get stuffed), UKIP will launch a campaign against it. Do you really think they will just disappear into insignificance when the main reason they wanted this Referendum was to end Freedom of Movement?

 

[Aber gas]

If the Government chose EEA with Freedom of Movement attached instead of a total exit (EU will say its EEA or get stuffed), UKIP will launch a campaign against it. Do you really think they will just disappear into insignificance when the main reason they wanted this Referendum was to end Freedom of Movement?

In their current form ? Yes. They can't exist as a anti- EEA party. Their supporters won't know what it is.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

In their current form ? Yes. They can't exist as a anti- EEA party. Their supporters won't know what it is.

They don't now, but they soon will do. All it would take is a series of Rally's and TV coverage, and the message will be out there. I get a lot of the "internal" scoop on what UKIP are planning into my mailbox on a daily basis and it's reliable as its from the party Chairman himself.

A rally call email was sent out on Friday, and I am expecting more throughout this week.

 

[Aber gas]

They don't now, but they soon will do. All it would take is a series of Rally's and TV coverage, and the message will be out there. I get a lot of the "internal" scoop on what UKIP are planning into my mailbox on a daily basis and it's reliable as its from the party Chairman himself.

A rally call email was sent out on Friday, and I am expecting more throughout this week.

I don't mean to be nosy but how do you get that? I volunteer with a group that has an interest.

 

[Pilgrim Meister]

I don't mean to be nosy but how do you get that? I volunteer with a group that has an interest.

I have sent you a PM, which should give you a better insight.

I can't post all that on here however. What they are planning though and what I think they should be doing are two entirely different things, and you will see that from I have put in my PM.

I am a realist, and look at things from what is most likely to happen, and not believing that a Free Trade Arrangement without the strings attached is achievable any time soon

 

[Aber gas]

I have sent you a PM, which should give you a better insight.

I can't post all that on here however. What they are planning though and what I think they should be doing are two entirely different things, and you will see that from I have put in my PM.

I am a realist, and look at things from what is most likely to happen, and not believing that a Free Trade Arrangement without the strings attached is achievable any time soon

I've read the PM. Thankyou, I don't think you're party is relevant anymore but it's always good to know what is going on.