Relegation Thread 23/24 Sponsored by Sadford City

[JJ1990]

66 - Mathematical Safety
51 -
50 -
49 -
48 - Harrogate(31)
47 - AFC Wimbledon(32), Notts County(32), Morecambe(31), Gillingham(32)
46 - Newport(32), Accrington(32), Bradford(33)
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 - Crawley(31)
42 - Walsall(31)
41 -
40 - Tranmere(33)
39 - Swindon(33), Salford(33)
38 -
37 -
36 - Doncaster(32)
35 -
34 - Expected Survival 23/24
33 -
32 -
31 -
30 - Colchester(32)
29 - Grimsby(31)
28 -
27 -
26 -
25 -
24 -
------------------------------------------------------
23 - Forest Green(32)
22 - Sutton(33)

Another tough week for the sides at the bottom. FGR did finally win a game on Tuesday at Barrow, but fell flat and lost against Crawley. Still, they did narrow the gap by 1. For Sutton, it's looking dire after back to back defeats.

Grimsby didn't play Tuesday, but got battered again at home. Things looking a bit grim for Artell. Colchester struggle to put points on the board and move clear of danger, but both sides remain a healthy distance from the bottom 2 as games tick away.

21st - Colchester, 30 points, -17 GD: Sutton(A), Salford(A), Stockport(H), Barrow(A), Doncaster(H)
22nd - Grimsby, 29 points, -16 GD: Morecambe(A), Forest Green(H), Wimbledon(A), Sutton(A), MK Dons(H)
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23rd - Forest Green, 23 points, -28 GD: Tranmere(H), Wrexham(H), Grimsby(A), Walsall(H), Bradford(A)
24th - Sutton, 22 points, -28 GD: Colchester(H), Notts County(A), Tranmere(A), Grimsby(H), Crewe(A)

Next Week's Fixtures:

Saturday 24th February
Forest Green Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
Morecambe v Grimsby Town
Sutton United v Colchester United

No midweek games for the strugglers. But then we have a big one as Sutton play Colchester. You do feel if they can't win that one, then it probably is too much for them to stay up. Grimsby look so horrendous at the back, you can't see where another win is coming from with them at the moment. FGR need to make their home games count, but will they?

 

[Alfie]

Do you suspect that 10 teams are still in danger of relegation if safety is 34 points?

 

[dedwardp]

The number in brackets is games played, so six of those ten teams have already surpassed 34 points.

 

[Greenacres]

I reckon that forty points should be enough for safety this season, Tranmere, Swindon and Salford will be fine, even if they go on a really bad run for the rest of the season they should still pick up enough points to get over the line...Doncaster are nearly there, another win and a draw should do it. Colchester and Grimsby are harder to predict, but a run of four or five games unbeaten, with at least a couple of wins, should be enough and leave them requiring just a couple of points from their remaining games. For Rovers and Sutton to get anywhere near the forty points will virtually require play-off form, usually something like 1.5 points per game or a bit more...sadly that is highly unlikely.

 

[Alfie]

The number in brackets is games played, so six of those ten teams have already surpassed 34 points.

So just 4 teams in danger !??

 

[Luke Imp]

Colchester and Grimsby are trying their best to give FGR and Sutton hope but they just aren't taking it.

 

[Casey]

I said in the match thread there's some decent players at FGR but they ain't working as a team and they don't seem to want to get stuck in and fight for the shirt.

Never say never but I can't see them getting to safety.

Casey

 

[The Jovial Forester]

I said in the match thread there's some decent players at FGR but they ain't working as a team and they don't seem to want to get stuck in and fight for the shirt.

Never say never but I can't see them getting to safety.

Casey

They did all that against Barrow so not sure why the same side couldn't do it again. Inconsistency is par for the course down here but even getting in early hours Wednesday can't believe they were that tired. Cotterill is our best hope of getting them going but he's a decent manager not a miracle worker. Expect us to fall short but not given up quite yet.

 

[Chris FGR]

Barrow was our only win since before halloween tbf, so it wasn't exactly a normal performance by our standards tbh.

There has been an improvement since SC's come in but watching us up close pitch side the spirit isn't exactly what I'd call the best I've ever seen. A lot of misunderstandings when we try supposed rehearsed/set passing moves with people then blaming each other + poor body language.

 

[JJ1990]

Barrow was our only win since before halloween tbf, so it wasn't exactly a normal performance by our standards tbh.

There has been an improvement since SC's come in but watching us up close pitch side the spirit isn't exactly what I'd call the best I've ever seen. A lot of misunderstandings when we try supposed rehearsed/set passing moves with people then blaming each other + poor body language.

Maybe Troy Deeney was right?

 

[Chris FGR]

Not many people are saying he was wrong tbf.

The way he said it publicly was probably the issue.

 

[JJ1990]

Do you suspect that 10 teams are still in danger of relegation if safety is 34 points?

View attachment 19792

No I don't, I think it's 2 from the current bottom 4, as I would be shocked if FGR and Sutton got to anywhere close to 40. I just include them in this table because why not.

 

[Chris FGR]

We could be level on points with Grimsby by the time we play them. Just need to beat Tranmere and Wrexham and hope they lose to Morecambe. Easy.

 

[Son of Cod]

Grimsby and their glasses can fuck off down back to where they belong the fucking grim scruffy derelict chav yokels.

Us and our famous glasses.

 

[Carver]

Us and our famous glasses.

I was referring to your manager, but just noticed he doesn't wear those big glasses anymore like he did at Crewe.

Maybe that's why he's not winning games.

 

[Son of Cod]

I was referring to your manager, but just noticed he doesn't wear those big glasses anymore like he did at Crewe.

Maybe that's why he's not winning games.

This actually would explain a lot to be fair.

 

[GTFCfish]

I was referring to your manager, but just noticed he doesn't wear those big glasses anymore like he did at Crewe.

Maybe that's why he's not winning games.

Can you explain the ‘scruffy derelict chav yokels’ bit please?
Not sure where derelict fits in with those other descriptive words?

 

[Carver]

Can you explain the ‘scruffy derelict chav yokels’ bit please?
Not sure where derelict fits in with those other descriptive words?

Run down buildings and everything closed down etc

I was just in a bad mood on Saturday I apologise.

 

[Chris FGR]

Wrong relegation thread Carver, or are you making yourself at home ready for next season?

 

[Meadow]

Thankfully we're out of this for the first season in yonks. Toodle pip and good luck to Sutton.

 

[JJ1990]

65 - Mathematical Safety
45 - Average Survival(2010-2023)
44 -
43 -
42 -
41 -
40 - Tranmere(34), Swindon(34)
39 - Salford(34), Doncaster(33)
38 -
37 -
36 - Expected Survival 23/24
35 -
34 -
33 -
32 -
31 - Colchester(33)
30 - Grimsby(32)
29 -
28 -
27 -
------------------------------------------------------
26 - Forest Green(32)
25 -
24 -
23 - Sutton(33)

Hmm, FGR are threatening to make things interesting at long last. Another win here, their 2nd in 3 games, closes the gap on Grimsby and Colchester. Only 4 points away now. Think both those clubs are going to bed a little nervy tonight. As for Sutton, the fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she's warming up.

21st - Colchester, 31 points, -17 GD: Salford(A), Stockport(H), Barrow(A), Doncaster(H),
22nd - Grimsby, 30 points, -16 GD: Forest Green(H), Wimbledon(A), Sutton(A), MK Dons(H),
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23rd - Forest Green, 26 points, -28 GD: Wrexham(H), Grimsby(A), Walsall(H), Bradford(A),
24th - Sutton, 23 points, -28 GD: Notts County(A), Tranmere(A), Grimsby(H), Crewe(A),

Next Week's Fixtures:

Tuesday 27th February
Forest Green Rovers v Wrexham
Notts County v Sutton United
Salford City v Colchester United

Tough games for all 3 sides, although Wrexham and Notts County aren't in the best form. Fancy FGR to get something off Wrexham given the Dragons poor away form. Not sure about the other 2 teams though, Salford are in form and Sutton can't buy a win at the moment.

Saturday 2nd March
Grimsby Town v Forest Green Rovers
Colchester United v Stockport County
Tranmere Rovers v Sutton United

Well would you look at that. 22nd v 23rd. Could be 1 point in it if FGR win on Tuesday. Massive game for both clubs. Colchester and Sutton once again have tough games.

 

[thewwfc]

Thought Cotterill would get FGR at least competitive again and there you have it, I think at least if they do go down, it’s happening with a bit of heart and fight now rather than as a shitshow.

That upcoming Grimsby game looks like a relegation dogfight lover’s wet dream.

 

[Gunit]

Relegation confirmed today. Waiting all season for a penalty to miss one to win it sums it up. We contrive not to win matches. A long 12 game goodbye to go through.

 

[Chris FGR]

Thought Cotterill would get FGR at least competitive again and there you have it, I think at least if they do go down, it’s happening with a bit of heart and fight now rather than as a shitshow.

That upcoming Grimsby game looks like a relegation dogfight lover’s wet dream.

He's got us organised and fighting for it, we're actually harder to break down for the first time in ages. Will it be enough, possibly not but at least we've given ourselves an outside chance.

 

[Conker]

Had FGR down to win on my acca today, I actually think they may get Colchester and Grimsby in to a bit of trouble now.

 

[PaulHaddock]

We’re down

 

[BarraMatt]

Morison losing the plot already?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761670432359334080

 

[Conker]

A terrible sign for a manager that, obviously not handling it very well and probably needs to have a quiet word with himself.

 

[Stocky]

It's not a bad point for Grimsby yesterday, they pick up some decent results away, just need to sort their home form out.

 

[northstandexile]

So the Stags are not mathematically safe from relegation yet. Ok never mind.