The bells and whistles promotion thread

[Kenneth E End]

I've just done that league calculator:

1st Northampton 102pts
2nd Oxford 94pts
3rd Plymouth 94pts
-------------------------------
4th Portsmouth 84pts
5th Bristol Rovers 84pts
6th Leyton Orient 75pts
7th Wycombe 75pts
------------------------------
8th Accrington Stanley 72pts
9th Luton 72pts
10th AFC Wimbledon 71pts
11th Exeter 67pts
12th Carlisle 65pts
13th Notts County 63pts
14th Mansfield 62pts
15th Cambridge 56pts
16th Barnet 48pts
17th Crawley 47pts
18th Newport 44pts
19th Morecambe 42pts
20th Yeovil 39pts
21st Stevenage 39pts
22nd Hartlepool 37pts
----------------------------
23rd York 35pts
24th Dagenham & Redbridge 32pts

 

[nevermindtheboll_Ox]

Sound proper bitter. Either way I didn't say it was easy (although we do our best to show otherwise) - Bristol R are a very good side.

For what it's worth, I think some people are being too nice about Oxford. I think our best bet would be to tighten up defensively if we were to go up - definitely need improvements down the flanks and a lot of supporters want a new keeper. I'd be happy with the midfield two we have as a good foundation though.

Also, never really got the fuss about getting promoted before because the league system seems pretty arbitrary and the difference between the two leagues relatively slight. But the prospect of avoiding the annual brouhaha of play off bound teams saying "the league must be terrible this year if we are in 7th" is incentive enough to try, I see that now.

I dunno if people are being too nice, I don't think we'd struggle. You only have to look at the clubs that went up last season to see how thin the gap is. How much more we'd need to compete for promotion again though is another question altogether. I'd want a new keeper even if we'd stayed down.

 

[Gassy]

Sounded pretty comfortable yesterday, especially the first half. I've always kinda thought to myself that we'll finish outside the play offs, but now i'm starting to get a bit positive. Our fixture list doesn't look that horrific as we've played most of the best teams (imo), we have: Wimbledon (H), Mansfield (H), Newport (A), Cambridge (H), Carlisle (A), Crawley (H), Northampton (A), Yeovil (H), Stevenage (A), Exeter (H), York (A), Daggers (H).

Tuesday is looking like a Super Tuesday fixture list though with Accy Vs Pompey & Rovers Vs Wimbledon. I guess fans of other teams will be hoping for some draws there

 

[Laker]

I've just done that league calculator:

1st Northampton 102pts
2nd Oxford 94pts
3rd Plymouth 94pts
-------------------------------
4th Portsmouth 84pts
5th Bristol Rovers 84pts
6th Leyton Orient 75pts
7th Wycombe 75pts
------------------------------
8th Accrington Stanley 72pts
9th Luton 72pts
10th AFC Wimbledon 71pts
11th Exeter 67pts
12th Carlisle 65pts
13th Notts County 63pts
14th Mansfield 62pts
15th Cambridge 56pts
16th Barnet 48pts
17th Crawley 47pts
18th Newport 44pts
19th Morecambe 42pts
20th Yeovil 39pts
21st Stevenage 39pts
22nd Hartlepool 37pts
----------------------------
23rd York 35pts
24th Dagenham & Redbridge 32pts

You have us to get 6 points from 11 games yet yourselves to get 22 from the same number of games, even though we've amassed the same number of points to date? While I could accept a small difference, 16 points is ridiculous.

 

[WAP]

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Northampton 46 +33 95
2 Oxford Utd 46 +38 90
3 Accrington Stanley 46 +25 86
4 Plymouth 46 +24 86
5 Portsmouth 46 +29 77
6 Bristol Rovers 46 +16 76
7 Wycombe 46 +9 73
8 Leyton Orient 46 +7 73
9 Carlisle 46 +7 71
10 Exeter 46 +1 71
11 AFC Wimbledon 46 +13 69
12 Mansfield 46 +5 66
13 Luton 46 -1 64
14 Barnet 46 -4 62
15 Cambridge Utd 46 +0 61
16 Stevenage 46 -16 51
17 Yeovil 46 -14 49
18 Crawley Town 46 -25 49
19 Morecambe 46 -12 48
20 Notts County 46 -20 48
21 Newport County 46 -18 47
22 Hartlepool 46 -33 39
23 York 46 -33 36
24 Dag & Red 46 -31 34

 

[Kenneth E End]

You have us to get 6 points from 11 games yet yourselves to get 22 from the same number of games, even though we've amassed the same number of points to date? While I could accept a small difference, 16 points is ridiculous.

Can't speak for Cambridge, but it looked like you had a fair few difficult fixtures (as have we), but only Northampton have gained more points than us in the period Nathan Jones has been at Luton.

 

[Habbinalan]

You have us to get 6 points from 11 games yet yourselves to get 22 from the same number of games, even though we've amassed the same number of points to date? While I could accept a small difference, 16 points is ridiculous.

Can't speak for Cambridge, but it looked like you had a fair few difficult fixtures (as have we), but only Northampton have gained more points than us in the period Nathan Jones has been at Luton.

I was just going to ask, since "we always win at Sixfields," (well never lose,...usually) where our other 3 points will be coming from.

 

[womble76]

The first table that had accy in 8th. Really. Having seen them twice there is no way they will miss the playoffs. Far more likely to nick Third.

 

[Habbinalan]

The first table that had accy in 8th. Really. Having seen them twice there is no way they will miss the playoffs. Far more likely to nick Third.

The "automatic calculation" clearly has a bias against Accrington. When I put in my mildly optimistic forecast of our results (bear in mind I'm a fervent mid-tabler who happens to believe we always win/never lose at Sixfields), it put us in the play-offs above Accrington. It also "automatically" gave Northampton only 91 points , ignoring our fixture next Saturday.....AND put WYCOMBE in the play-offs

 

[Vanni]

You have us to get 6 points from 11 games yet yourselves to get 22 from the same number of games, even though we've amassed the same number of points to date? While I could accept a small difference, 16 points is ridiculous.

What's downright offensive in Kenny's prediction is we'll finish below Notts C. You don't need me to tell you what that means.

 

[GrahamSFC]

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Northampton 46 +33 95
2 Oxford Utd 46 +38 90
3 Accrington Stanley 46 +25 86
4 Plymouth 46 +24 86
5 Portsmouth 46 +29 77
6 Bristol Rovers 46 +16 76
7 Wycombe 46 +9 73
8 Leyton Orient 46 +7 73
9 Carlisle 46 +7 71
10 Exeter 46 +1 71
11 AFC Wimbledon 46 +13 69
12 Mansfield 46 +5 66
13 Luton 46 -1 64
14 Barnet 46 -4 62
15 Cambridge Utd 46 +0 61
16 Stevenage 46 -16 51
17 Yeovil 46 -14 49
18 Crawley Town 46 -25 49
19 Morecambe 46 -12 48
20 Notts County 46 -20 48
21 Newport County 46 -18 47
22 Hartlepool 46 -33 39
23 York 46 -33 36
24 Dag & Red 46 -31 34

Yeah... I somehow doubt we'll get 17 points from our last 11 games...

 

[Vanni]

The "automatic calculation" clearly has a bias against Accrington. When I put in my mildly optimistic forecast of our results (bear in mind I'm a fervent mid-tabler who happens to believe we always win/never lose at Sixfields), it put us in the play-offs above Accrington. It also "automatically" gave Northampton only 91 points , ignoring our fixture next Saturday.....AND put WYCOMBE in the play-offs

I predicted our results only and got 11th, but got Accrington in second, and not too many points behind the Cobblers! Therefore I'm not too sure about the bias you mention Alan. Maybe the 'automatic calculation' is in reality a human being who changes his mind every hour or so

 

[mowgli]

I've just done that league calculator:

1st Northampton 102pts
2nd Oxford 94pts
3rd Plymouth 94pts
-------------------------------
4th Portsmouth 84pts
5th Bristol Rovers 84pts
6th Leyton Orient 75pts
7th Wycombe 75pts
------------------------------
8th Accrington Stanley 72pts
9th Luton 72pts
10th AFC Wimbledon 71pts
11th Exeter 67pts
12th Carlisle 65pts
13th Notts County 63pts
14th Mansfield 62pts
15th Cambridge 56pts
16th Barnet 48pts
17th Crawley 47pts
18th Newport 44pts
19th Morecambe 42pts
20th Yeovil 39pts
21st Stevenage 39pts
22nd Hartlepool 37pts
----------------------------
23rd York 35pts
24th Dagenham & Redbridge 32pts

We will not finish in the play offs as we're not good enough,i reckon we'll finish around 10th.

 

[rudebwoyben]

I much prefer WAP's predicted table to Kenny's who thinks that we'll only gain 5 more points this season...

 

[rudebwoyben]

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Northampton 46 +33 95
2 Oxford Utd 46 +38 90
3 Accrington Stanley 46 +25 86
4 Plymouth 46 +24 86
5 Portsmouth 46 +29 77
6 Bristol Rovers 46 +16 76
7 Wycombe 46 +9 73
8 Leyton Orient 46 +7 73
9 Carlisle 46 +7 71
10 Exeter 46 +1 71
11 AFC Wimbledon 46 +13 69
12 Mansfield 46 +5 66
13 Luton 46 -1 64
14 Barnet 46 -4 62
15 Cambridge Utd 46 +0 61
16 Stevenage 46 -16 51
17 Yeovil 46 -14 49
18 Crawley Town 46 -25 49
19 Morecambe 46 -12 48
20 Notts County 46 -20 48
21 Newport County 46 -18 47
22 Hartlepool 46 -33 39
23 York 46 -33 36
24 Dag & Red 46 -31 34

Heartbreak for Plymouth Argyle by the narrowest of margins!

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

Looks like we are being overlooked in those predictors, which is a good thing.

I imagine it'll be absolutely crucial to your final league position.

 

[WAP]

Yeah... I somehow doubt we'll get 17 points from our last 11 games...

It wasn't on purpose, usually one team you predict too highly and one too lowly.

Tried to do it based on home and away forms aswell, and even the lower teams got a rare away win somewhere.

 

[Habbinalan]

I predicted our results only and got 11th, but got Accrington in second, and not too many points behind the Cobblers! Therefore I'm not too sure about the bias you mention Alan. Maybe the 'automatic calculation' is in reality a human being who changes his mind every hour or so

I'm beginning to think that dice may be involved - otherwise, it might be a US inspired version of one of Trapdoor's stochastic models with geometric random variables for the influences on results and score lines correlated to away followings, EVANS factors in management, degree of northness and an optimism coefficient from key message boards.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-our-college-football-playoff-predictions-work/

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

away followings, degree of northness and an optimism coefficient from key message boards.

If these aren't the basis for any of your cute "prediction model" dealies then we need a new dealie. Long considered them absolutely key in my own predictions for Oxford, which have been razor sharp this year to the point of causing confrontation (usually with the Carlisle fan who accuses me of witchcraft).

 

[ThisTinpotLeague]

I dunno if people are being too nice, I don't think we'd struggle. You only have to look at the clubs that went up last season to see how thin the gap is. How much more we'd need to compete for promotion again though is another question altogether. I'd want a new keeper even if we'd stayed down.

Look at it from my point of view - I don't do away games, and I missed the Plymouth and York home games this year. As far as I'm concerned, we've won about three times and we're fighting for our lives in League Two.

 

[Carver]

Luton are ones to watch out for.

 

[BRFC_Gas]

Luton are ones to watch out for.

They are the only ones to watch out for when taking up my bandwith....

 

[EricSabin]

A football stats page on Twitter worked out there's a 99.84% chance of us finishing in the top 3. Finished 4th or lower in 16 of 10,000 simulations.

 

[Habbinalan]

A football stats page on Twitter worked out there's a 99.84% chance of us finishing in the top 3. Finished 4th or lower in 16 of 10,000 simulations.

That sounds like similar odds to winning a prize in our 50:50 Draw - which I have done. I'm sure others on here have also beaten those odds. We won't count the Alfreton 50:50 or Forest Green Meat Raffle but still, don't relax yet. The first wheel nut comes off on Saturday.

 

[EricSabin]

That sounds like similar odds to winning a prize in our 50:50 Draw - which I have done. I'm sure others on here have also beaten those odds. We won't count the Alfreton 50:50 or Forest Green Meat Raffle but still, don't relax yet. The first wheel nut comes off on Saturday.

Reckon we'll be up before April, hope Accrington lose their two this week and we continue winning our games. Promoted at Mansfield away would be lovely.

 

[LordJord]

Reckon we'll be up before April, hope Accrington lose their two this week and we continue winning our games. Promoted at Mansfield away would be lovely.

I assume you mean John-Joe day mark 2.
Couldnt beleive it, sent off for hitting someone within about 30 mins, what a turnaround for him!

 

[Nelza82]

What a bloody season eh!

 

[AboveWater]

Great job by Northampton to be storming away like they are, its the position everyone wishes they could be in make no mistake. Win our game at Accy on tuesday, and maybe ill start thinking about the slim hopes of autos again. The season may well shape up for us in such a way that the home game with Plymouth on the 16th April could be a defining moment, wherein we overtake plymouth into 3rd on that day and gloriously surge through the final few fixtures after and celebrate at fratton park with Northampton. Snap back to reality lad we'll probably play plymouth 8 points behind them, clinging on to our play off place and the season will go down to the wire.

 

[EricSabin]

Great job by Northampton to be storming away like they are, its the position everyone wishes they could be in make no mistake. Win our game at Accy on tuesday, and maybe ill start thinking about the slim hopes of autos again. The season may well shape up for us in such a way that the home game with Plymouth on the 16th April could be a defining moment, wherein we overtake plymouth into 3rd on that day and gloriously surge through the final few fixtures after and celebrate at fratton park with Northampton. Snap back to reality lad we'll probably play plymouth 8 points behind them, clinging on to our play off place and the season will go down to the wire.

If you still need a result will we get less tickets?

 

[Carver]

Will Northampton make it to the Premier League like Bournemouth have?