The League 2 Promotion thread

[UTS]

Definitely not us then

Colchester away for you guys, another one of those niggly sides that are beatable, but aren’t bad themselves. Obviously chasing the play-offs too so will be up for it you’d imagine, although they do seem to be on a downward projection.

 

[joethegill]

All a bit of a confusion up the top really! MK v Mansfield really looks like being the defining game, but who would've thought FGR would be so close to the autos? Fair play to them. Play-off race is ridiculous too. I've got Bury and MK to snatch 2nd and 3rd (both on 80), then Mansfield on 79 in 4th. Newport to nick the last play-off spot by a point from Carlisle along the way.

If anyone cares, I've written some of my thoughts here about how I see the rest of the season panning out across all the leagues.

 

[birkenhead tranny]

Plastics.

Where were they when you were shit?

does every clubs attendance not go up as things improve or down if they falter ! anyway wool why you so obsessed any how ? swa swa

 

[wangle]

does every clubs attendance not go up as things improve or down if they falter ! anyway wool why you so obsessed any how ? swa swa

Woosh.

It was a joke based around what your lot kept giving renditions of on Monday afternoon and the fact Lincoln are always blasted for having plastic fans.

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Woosh.

It was a joke based around what your lot kept giving renditions of on Monday afternoon and the fact Lincoln are always blasted for having plastic fans.

You’ve done well to hold onto those fans, but it’s all been crest of the wave; curious if they hang around should you find yourselves bottom third next season though.

 

[wangle]

You’ve done well to hold onto those fans, but it’s all been crest of the wave; curious if they hang around should you find yourselves bottom third next season though.

Of course it will drop down at some point. Generally there is a correlation between success and attendances.
They won't drop down to the level of when we were wasting away in the national league, but who knows how many will stick around. However, we all caught the bug at some point didn't we!

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Of course it will drop down at some point. Generally there is a correlation between success and attendances.
They won't drop down to the level of when we were wasting away in the national league, but who knows how many will stick around. However, we all caught the bug at some point didn't we!

Well my first game we were on the brink of the Prem. Someone should have told me it was all downhill from there.

 

[birkenhead tranny]

Of course it will drop down at some point. Generally there is a correlation between success and attendances.
They won't drop down to the level of when we were wasting away in the national league, but who knows how many will stick around. However, we all caught the bug at some point didn't we!

cant rememder when i caught the bug really earliest memories was walking up to the ground on a friday night and seeing the lights on , we used to bunk in and have the couple of quid as extra pocket money ha ha . swa swa

 

[Pablosammy]

cant rememder when i caught the bug really earliest memories was walking up to the ground on a friday night and seeing the lights on , we used to bunk in and have the couple of quid as extra pocket money ha ha . swa swa

Floodlights, anticipation, and the smell of the burger van on a cold Friday night. Ahhh, can't beat it.

 

[birkenhead tranny]

Floodlights, anticipation, and the smell of the burger van on a cold Friday night. Ahhh, can't beat it.

think i can remember a burger van or the generator blowing up on the open end as we used to call it , oh ye them cold nights and some one would stand on yer toes ha ha , we used to run on the pitch for tie ups christ it was muddy , swa swa

 

[FGR Stroud]

swa swa

Please accept my ignorance but what is the significance of "SWA SWA" at end of every one of your posts?

 

[UTS]

Please accept my ignorance but what is the significance of "SWA SWA" at end of every one of your posts?

Super white army

 

[shoddycollins]

With only two games to go (three for some) It's permutations time!

Lincoln finally storm to the title with a run of 2 points from 3 games.

The automatic race gets turned around as Bury are one of only two teams in the top half to win. FGR are the other and with their good form they may have a sneaky feeling they can gatecrash the party.

Bury travel to Tranmere and if they win there, then Mansfield and MK Dons both need at least a draw against Stevenage and Colchester respectively or else Bury are promoted. Bury are the only ones who could confirm promotion on Saturday but it will go down to the final day for everyone else.

Mansfield and MK Dons straddle the final automatic place on goal difference, they're both on 76 points and both face teams on 64 points so it's on a knife-edge. It will go to the final day when they play each-other regardless, however if Mansfield win and MK Dons lose on Saturday then it would be a big ask for MK Dons to overturn Mansfield's GD advantage. So a situation where Bury and Mansfield win while MK Dons lose would all but end the automatic promotion race.

If the boot were on the other foot, and MK Dons won while Mansfield lost then it would be advantage them, but with Mansfield likely to claim promotion on goal difference should they then win at Stadium.mk. Any scenario where one of them draws or both get the same result on Saturday would see that final game as a more straightforward winner-goes-up battle, with different scenarios affecting who goes up if they draw (most of them being Mansfield but depending on other results, you could have a situation where neither go up).

FGR and Tranmere both retain outside chances of getting into the top three on the final day, only if they win on Saturday. Tranmere as mentioned previously, host Bury, so a Tranmere win, as well as forcing Bury to sweat on automatic promotion could keep Tranmere's chances alive, but only if Mansfield and MK Dons both fail to win. FGR travel to in-form Crewe who also cling to faint hopes of promotion. Either of them could then claim automatic promotion by winning their final games. Both FGR and Tranmere are guaranteed playoffs at least (well Tranmere could slip out in a unlikely scenario involving them losing both remaining games while Exeter and Newport both win theirs.)

I'll look at the playoff race featuring Exeter all the way down to Swindon in a little while.

 

[Spanishstag]

Words of wisdom indeed ,by 5 oclock saturday everything will seem a lot clearer ,think we should win at home ,dont think mk will win at colchester ,in fact really think they will lose ,so jobs as good as done ,,,unlessssss

 

[hold'um Oldham]

Tbh I think the playoff race is over for everyone below us. Even we are hanging on by a thread

 

[Tranmerewhite]

Tbh I think the playoff race is over for everyone below us. Even we are hanging on by a thread

You’d need to win all 3 to have a chance and even that might not be enough if Newport do the same.

Personally think Carlisle will take 7th spot.

 

[birkenhead tranny]

Words of wisdom indeed ,by 5 oclock saturday everything will seem a lot clearer ,think we should win at home ,dont think mk will win at colchester ,in fact really think they will lose ,so jobs as good as done ,,,unlessssss

tick tock 5 o clock its a mixture of dread and excitement , good luck to everyone well except burrrry, mansfield,mk ,seat ,wreckers , swa swa

 

[SELatic]

You’d need to win all 3 to have a chance and even that might not be enough if Newport do the same.

Personally think Carlisle will take 7th spot.

We have to play Newport as one of our three games so if we win all three, we finish in the play offs - same for Newport. Tall order but stranger things have happened. Not getting my hopes up, just enjoying the fact our season is lasting a little longer than I’d thought it would a few weeks back.

 

[Dean]

Bury travel to Tranmere and if they win there, then Mansfield and MK Dons both need at least a draw against Stevenage and Colchester respectively or else Bury are promoted.

If that happens Bury are promoted. If they win and other two draw or even one of them drops points Bury are promoted because they both can’t get maximum points on the final day.

 

[shoddycollins]

OK Playoff permutations.

There's a lot of clubs in it, but it's simpler than it looks as mostly it's just a case of whether Exeter secure their playoff place or whether one of the chasing pack nicks it. The game in hand between Newport and Oldham is the key one as both those clubs have it in their hands if they win tomorrow and then win that game on Tuesday. Either way, nothing much will be known on Saturday due to that game, but a lot will become clear on Tuesday.

To make things more interesting Exeter are at home to Oldham on Saturday. If Exeter win that then Oldham are out of the running. As would be Crewe and Swindon regardless of what they do (since Crewe play FGR and Swindon play Cheltenham we're spared the complexity of six-pointers in that case)

Newport host Lincoln. If they lose or draw while Exeter win, they'll still be able to claim the last playoff place, but it would be back in Exeter's hands. A win for Newport though would keep it in their hands, provided they beat Oldham on Tuesday they would go into the last game occupying the final playoff spot.

Colchester, Carlisle and Stevenage all sit two points behind Exeter and play MK Dons, Crawley and Mansfield respectively. Should Exeter win then they all must win too to stay in it. Should Exeter win while those three fail to win then it becomes a two-horse race between Exeter and Newport.

If Exeter and Oldham draw then Oldham are still in it but it's out of their hands and they would have to get at least a draw against Newport on Tuesday to remain in the chase. Oldham's goal difference though is the best of all the teams in this battle and the scenario where they draw against Exeter and then also Newport means they couldn't be more than three points behind the playoffs on the final day and would have that goal difference advantage.

As with an Exeter win, Newport are still going to be in it regardless of their result against Lincoln but a draw would keep it in their hands.

For Colchester, Carlisle and Stevenage meanwhile, a draw between Exeter and Oldham could give them the chance to take over in seventh place, though that could be short lived if Newport pick up four points in their game against Lincoln plus their game in hand against Oldham. I say four points and not three because of Newport's poor goal difference.

Crewe could stay in the race if Exeter draw, but they would have to beat MK Dons to do so and likewise Swindon against Cheltenham though realistically they'd be out of it, requiring too great a swing in goal difference.

An Oldham win changes things around quite a bit. For one it would keep things in Oldham's hands, it would also allow one of the four teams above them. Colchester, Carlisle, Stevenage or Newport to have it in their hands pending Tuesday's result. (or in Newport's case, it would be in their hands anyway). Those teams would all need to win to avoid being leapfrogged by Oldham given the goal difference. It would also keep Crewe and Swindon's faint hopes alive, provided of course, they both win (mathematically Crewe could draw but it would leave them requiring a big goal difference swing).

On Tuesday things will become clear, and a lot of teams' playoff hopes hinge on this one game. Note that Newport have home advantage in this game as well as the Lincoln game, and we all know what an advantage Dave Parade can prove.

It would be easier for me to wait until after Saturday's matches to fully look through the permutations of Tuesday's game, but it could potentially see Exeter cement their place in the playoffs, or Newport cement their place, or any of Colchester, Carlisle, Stevenage, Newport or Oldham move into pole position before the final weekend with things still wide open. It could potentially see any of those teams drop out of the race altogether. Only Exeter are guaranteed to be in with a chance on the final day regardless of what happens.

There's a distinct possibility that on the final day this will be the only issue left to be resolved. There are a few potentials for games on the final day where both teams have something to play for, such as the MK Dons v Mansfield game. FGR v Exeter is less likely to have anything much riding on it for FGR. Swindon play Notts, should they make it to the final day. The other game that jumps out is Yeovil v Carlisle.

 

[Tranmerewhite]

TLDR;
- it’s easier to wait till next weekend to work it out
- if any teams below Exeter lose tomorrow they’re ducked

 

[shoddycollins]

TLDR;
- it’s easier to wait till next weekend to work it out
- if any teams below Exeter lose tomorrow they’re ducked

Not necessarily ducked though, Exeter could well lose tomorrow. Newport could lose tomorrow and it still be in their hands.

 

[AdamStag]

Looks like the home ends are close to being sold out tomorrow, apparently.

With Stevenage due to bring a big crowd for them (what would that be? 100?) could be a decent atmosphere.

 

[denzel ecfc]

So not for the first time this season everyone wants us to lose.
I'm beginning to feel like a Millwall fan

 

[birkenhead tranny]

So not for the first time this season everyone wants us to lose.
I'm beginning to feel like a Millwall fan

your not on your own we have several tranmere obsessives on here , they know who they are ! swa swa

 

[Lborostag]

Looks like the home ends are close to being sold out tomorrow, apparently.

With Stevenage due to bring a big crowd for them (what would that be? 100?) could be a decent atmosphere.

Surprising seen as we only get anything over 3000 for County away apparently

 

[shoddycollins]

So not for the first time this season everyone wants us to lose.
I'm beginning to feel like a Millwall fan

Surely a third successive play-off final would be too much for your fans to take. I bet Sky Sports are getting sick of televising Exeter bottle jobs too, so it would be in everyone's best interests if Exeter were to just throw this.

 

[northstandexile]

Even if MK lose at Colchester, Mansfield win tomorrow by the odd goal and Bury win just one of their two matches, Forest Green can still finish in auto positions if the following scores happen

MK Dons 4-0 Mansfield
Crewe 0-3 FGR
FGR 3-0 Exeter.

 

[denzel ecfc]

Surely a third successive play-off final would be too much for your fans to take. I bet Sky Sports are getting sick of televising Exeter bottle jobs too, so it would be in everyone's best interests if Exeter were to just throw this.

You do know that most of those bottlers have now moved 200 miles in a northeasterly direction.

We didn't bottle it in the semis though

 

[Camdenite]

You do know that most of those bottlers have now moved 200 miles in a northeasterly direction.

We didn't bottle it in the semis though

He does make a good point.

We were quite capable of blowing play offs long before Tis arrived, mind.