The proper relegation thread.

[chipmunx]

Rochdale (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Port Vale (H)
Crawley (A)
FGR (H)
Salford (A)
Sutton (H)
Exeter (A)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)

After our next 4 games all our remaining games Home and Away look a bit tricky, although we did beat Swindon (H 2-0) and Northampton (A 1-0) I wouldn't expect the reverse games to be as easy....

 

[kieran_vale]

Rochdale (A)
Scunthorpe (A)
Carlisle (H)
Leyton Orient (A)
Port Vale (H)
Crawley (A)
FGR (H)
Salford (A)
Sutton (H)
Exeter (A)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)

After our next 4 games all our remaining games Home and Away look a bit tricky, although we did beat Swindon (H 2-0) and Northampton (A 1-0) I wouldn't expect the reverse games to be as easy....

By the time we play you there is a not insignificant chance our season will be over and the players will be on the proverbial beach so there’s an opportunity for Barrow.

To me it looks like Scunny and Stevenage to drop.

 

[shoddycollins]

This is why despite our recent wins, I still think we’ll go down.

Our remaining fixtures.

Northampton (2nd) - H
Newport (5th) - H
Barrow (22nd) - A
Bristol R (9th) - H
Rochdale (17th) - A
Tranmere (7th) - A
Exeter (3rd) - H
Walsall (16th) - A
Mansfield (6th) - H
Harrogate (14th) - A
Stevenage (21st) - H
Bradford (15th) - A

Those home fixtures are horrendous. We’ll be lucky to have a point from the 5 home games leading into the final one against Stevenage.
It puts a hell of a lot of pressure on us getting results on the road. We have won our last 2 away games but overall we don’t tend to travel well. The Barrow game is going to be huge, as it will probably be off the back of successive defeats. It will simply be must win.

If we show the fight we have shown we should have at least a point from those five games, there's always the opportunity to pick up points here and there, we even managed two on the run of form that got Millen the sack.

 

[BarraMatt]

You have plenty more winnable home games than us and I think it’s what teams do at home that will decide things.

We are fucked then, three home wins all season.

 

[E10rifle]

Hartlepools (A)
FGR (A)
Rochdale (H)
Harrogate (A)
Barrow (H)
Oldham (A)
Walsall (A)
Sutton (A)
Scunny (H)
Swindon (A)
Northampton (H)
Crawley (A)
Tranmere (H)

Completely and utterly in our own hands still. That said, we’ve only won 1 away game all season so with 8 still to come on the road I’m not overly hopeful of easing clear. We’ve actually had better performance levels on the road, but thrown away so, so many points due to our pisspoor finishing and inability to defend set pieces. Wellens has his work cut out even though four wins should probably be enough.

 

[SELatic]

League Two run-in analysis

English League Two stats

www.soccerstats.com

Interesting table on this website called ‘run in analysis’ which measures the difficulty of each team’s run-in based on the PPG of their remaining opponents. Suggests we have the toughest run-in followed by Col U and Barrow.

Despite HG’s protestations, Carlisle statistically have the easiest run-in aside from Scunthorpe.

 

[Bottega Don]

League Two run-in analysis

English League Two stats

www.soccerstats.com

Interesting table on this website called ‘run in analysis’ which measures the difficulty of each team’s run-in based on the PPG of their remaining opponents. Suggests we have the toughest run-in followed by Col U and Barrow.

Despite HG’s protestations, Carlisle statistically have the easiest run-in aside from Scunthorpe.

Explains why were so far bottom cause we've played the hardest teams so far.

Time for us to step it up and begin the great escape now

 

[BarraMatt]

We have to hope we pick up points where it isn't expected of us as we have been doing over the last two seasons. Our record against sides around us at the bottom has been poor and that doesn't bode well for the next run of four games. We need to go on the sort of run Oldham were on and Carlisle are having.

 

[chipmunx]

We have to hope we pick up points where it isn't expected of us as we have been doing over the last two seasons. Our record against sides around us at the bottom has been poor and that doesn't bode well for the next run of four games. We need to go on the sort of run Oldham were on and Carlisle are having.

we do seam to have a better away record against lowly teams though;-

Home Scunthorpe (D) Oldham (D) Stevenage (D) Orient (D) Colchester (L) Rochdale (L) Carlisle (NP)
Away Scunthorpe (NP) Oldham (W) Stevenage (L) Orient (NP) Colchester (W) Rochdale (NP) Carlisle (D)

luckily 3 of the 4 games we have left against other teams near the bottom are away.

 

[BarraMatt]

we do seam to have a better away record against lowly teams though;-

Home Scunthorpe (D) Oldham (D) Stevenage (D) Orient (D) Colchester (L) Rochdale (L) Carlisle (NP)
Away Scunthorpe (NP) Oldham (W) Stevenage (L) Orient (NP) Colchester (W) Rochdale (NP) Carlisle (D)

luckily 3 of the 4 games we have left against other teams near the bottom are away.

Couldn't think of anything worse than an edgy Holker Street crowd at some of those games.

 

[hellogregory]

Some of our fans are getting carried away. Talking about away games next season against the relegated teams from L1 etc. ridiculous. It’s only 3 wins, we’re not safe at all. We had 3 straight wins earlier in the year then didn’t win again for nearly 2 months. With our next 2 games are against 2nd and 5th, it’s going to be back to back home defeats and us right back in the mire a week from now going into a crucial game at barrow.
Far too premature to be thinking we’re safe. Yes the 3 wins have given us a lifeline when we were absolutely dead, but we’re still in big big trouble and people need to wake up and realise it.

 

[hellogregory]

If we show the fight we have shown we should have at least a point from those five games, there's always the opportunity to pick up points here and there, we even managed two on the run of form that got Millen the sack.

Even a point from those home games puts huge huge emphasis on the away games at Barrow and Rochdale. I’d feel a lot better if 1 or 2 more of those home games were against teams not in the top 7.

 

[AdamStag]

if i were a carlisle fan i’d be contemplating relegation now

 

[Shrimper92]

Colchester and above safe

Between the rest

 

[Bottega Don]

16 points behind the "worst team in the FL" think we might be down

 

[chipmunx]

up 1 place - above Stevenage and 3 points above Oldham (many thanks Swindon!)

Huge game Tuesday away at Scunthorpe (the 2nd worst team in the league after Carlisle....)

 

[Monkey Tennis]

Hellogregory can now start looking forward to next season's relegation campaign.

 

[Shrimper92]

Hellogregory can now start looking forward to next season's relegation campaign.

"We're actually still favourites to go down. We're playing 5 of our games under a full moon and we have players who are scared of the dark. Oldham have just signed a wearwolf"

 

[Monkey Tennis]

Despite moving up a place, I think that's us one step closer to the drop as that was one of the only winnable games on paper. Other teams above us winning to just about secure their safety is bad news too. Scunthorpe midweek is must-win, and I've got a terrible feeling about it.

 

[BarraMatt]

Trying to get to safety by 0-0ing our way there. Hopefully Carlisle will be on the piss all week celebrating their survival before we play them on Saturday.

 

[Carver]

We should be alright.

A good finish to the season is what I'd like to see us carry on into next season.

 

[shoddycollins]

Even a point from those home games puts huge huge emphasis on the away games at Barrow and Rochdale. I’d feel a lot better if 1 or 2 more of those home games were against teams not in the top 7.

How about three?

 

[hellogregory]

How about three?

Paul Simpson never ceases to amaze me. Make no mistake we’ve beaten a good team today.

The contrast from that Swindon game 3 weeks ago is miraculous. We’re not a great team all of a sudden, we don’t suddenly have great players. But the attitude and work rate Simmo has instilled is nothing short of incredible.

 

[hellogregory]

As much as I was impressed with the 3 wins, I did think Orient, Rochdale and Oldham, yeah that’s one thing. But 2nd placed Northampton is a different proposition and will be too much for us even with simmo in charge. To beat them and make it 4 straight wins is beyond anything imaginable.

 

[dedwardp]

Probably only need two more wins, but wouldn't be surprised if we were still looking for two wins from the final six games by which point a home game with Stevenage would seem pretty huge. More breathing space though, for sure.

 

[Carver]

Paul Simpson never ceases to amaze me. Make no mistake we’ve beaten a good team today.

The contrast from that Swindon game 3 weeks ago is miraculous. We’re not a great team all of a sudden, we don’t suddenly have great players. But the attitude and work rate Simmo has instilled is nothing short of incredible.

Don't get carried away HG, we could easily lose 4 in a row and be right back in it so please don't get so deluded into thinking that our team is incredible all of a sudden.

Because the moment it all falls apart I'll be the first to tell you I told you so..

 

[hellogregory]

Don't get carried away HG, we could easily lose 4 in a row and be right back in it so please don't get so deluded into thinking that our team is incredible all of a sudden.

Because the moment it all falls apart I'll be the first to tell you I told you so..

I literally said in my post that you quoted that we’re not a great team all of a sudden. I’m not getting carried away, we were second best today, but we dug out a win and that’s all that matters.

I’m well aware that this team is more than capable of losing the next 6 games. We have some more really tough games coming up, starting on Tuesday. No getting carried away from me I can assure you. We are still in a relegation cat fight.

 

[Carver]

I literally said in my post that you quoted that we’re not a great team all of a sudden. I’m not getting carried away, we were second best today, but we dug out a win and that’s all that matters.

I’m well aware that this team is more than capable of losing the next 6 games. We have some more really tough games coming up, starting on Tuesday. No getting carried away from me I can assure you. We are still in a relegation cat fight.

You said our teams attitude and work rate is incredible now. You're being too positive now mate I don't like it.

Are you forgetting that we're by far the 2nd worst team in L2??

Even though we're 17th and 9 points clear of 23rd.

 

[hellogregory]

You said our teams attitude and work rate is incredible now. You're being too positive now mate I don't like it.

Are you forgetting that we're by far the 2nd worst team in L2??

In terms of quality I think we are bottom 2 standard. At the moment Simmo’s ability to inspire the players, get more out of them and his tactical ability is making up for it.
We proved over the 31 games prior to Simpson’s arrival that the squad is bottom 2 standard. It shows how h good a manager he is that he can set up the team to get results against better teams with better players like today for example.

I suspect you’re getting carried away by trying to laugh it off as if we’re safe. We’re not.

 

[Carver]

In terms of quality I think we are bottom 2 standard. At the moment Simmo’s ability to inspire the players, get more out of them and his tactical ability is making up for it.
We proved over the 31 games prior to Simpson’s arrival that the squad is bottom 2 standard. It shows how h good a manager he is that he can set up the team to get results against better teams with better players like today for example.

I suspect you’re getting carried away by trying to laugh it off as if we’re safe. We’re not.

Hahaha

We are safe now come on, only a miserable prick would think we're bottom 2 standard and still well in a relegation fight.