League 2 relegation thread 14/15

[Stringy]

Mansfield will be safe, hopefully we get the wins on the board soon though to save us the nerves.

On another note, I was browsing our official site and it said somewhere that Lee Beevers is leading our assists chart with a total of three assists. That is shocking.

 

[Murphy]

What a night that was then. Hartlepool as well, absolutely loving the fightback from them now we ourselves should more or less be safe - 6 points to guarantee it I reckon and although we have a tricky run in I think we should more than manage that.

Where have Carlisle pulled two clean sheets on the bounce out from as well? Didn't expect them to get anything at Northampton so to do them 2-0 is massive, obviously.

Oxford, Cambridge and York the big losers clearly. Really fancy York to drop now that my Mansfield prediction seems out of the window, home form is generally pretty imperative and at this stage of the season draws are no good..and they couldn't even manage that last night. Not massively surprised Wilcox hasn't worked out there either (as yet), Scunthorpe fans were pretty vocal from what I remember about him not being as good as the media hyped him up to be after that unbeaten start he had with them. Too many draws not enough wins, sort of manifesting itself again at York but in a more critical situation. That's how I see it anyway.

 

[AdamStag]

What a night that was then. Hartlepool as well, absolutely loving the fightback from them now we ourselves should more or less be safe - 6 points to guarantee it I reckon and although we have a tricky run in I think we should more than manage that.

Where have Carlisle pulled two clean sheets on the bounce out from as well? Didn't expect them to get anything at Northampton so to do them 2-0 is massive, obviously.

Oxford, Cambridge and York the big losers clearly. Really fancy York to drop now that my Mansfield prediction seems out of the window, home form is generally pretty imperative and at this stage of the season draws are no good..and they couldn't even manage that last night. Not massively surprised Wilcox hasn't worked out there either (as yet), Scunthorpe fans were pretty vocal from what I remember about him not being as good as the media hyped him up to be after that unbeaten start he had with them. Too many draws not enough wins, sort of manifesting itself again at York but in a more critical situation. That's how I see it anyway.

I think we have surprised a few with how we have performed, things got a little dicey for a while when we spent a week in the relegation zone, and that seems to have shocked the team into form.

Home form, as you point out is key - after that game with Carlisle we have picked up 14 points from a possible 21 at home - including games against Bury, Luton, Northampton, Wycombe, Stevenage and Wimbledon - all top half teams (only you guys are bottom half) which I happen to think is a pretty impressive feat - If you can have that form throughout the season you are going to be alright.

Sorry to disappoint you that we'll be around for another season

 

[Richard Cranium]

We are now 16th, probably the highest we've been all season. Bingham's late goal could be massive given the results!

Accrington v York
Hartelpool v Mansfield

2 of this weekend's fixtures of the sides below Dagenhaam playing each other. I'll take a point now, I think Hartlepool will stay up, 4 points at the bottom is not alot. Especially given the fact 3 teams are on 37. 2/3 wins for them and they might find themselves out of the bottom 2. They'd have been 2 points from safety if Tranmere and Cheltenham didn't win and draw.

 

[Shrimpurh]

Fancy Hartlepool to get the win and close the gap further. Come on Pools!

 

[localhero]

I thought you saw out the match well (although we didn't make it that difficult) and Max Power is obviously a decent player.

Funny you should say that because the last couple of months I wouldn't have been surprised if someone had told me he was only on the pitch because he'd won a competition. Need him to regain some of his form from the first half of the season because he's been terrible (strangely enough) since the transfer window closed.

 

[hellogregory]

It's a must win for us on Saturday now. The reason I've said we'll finish bottom is because whenever we get a decent result we never back it up with another, we'll go on to lose the next 3 or 4 matches. 1 step forward, 4 step backwards is the story of our season.

If we can somehow scrape 3 points on Saturday and get back to back wins, it will give us a chance to get out of this, or at least avoid finishing bottom.

Crucial weekend ahead for us.

 

[shoddycollins]

Funny you should say that because the last couple of months I wouldn't have been surprised if someone had told me he was only on the pitch because he'd won a competition. Need him to regain some of his form from the first half of the season because he's been terrible (strangely enough) since the transfer window closed.

We had that with Brad Potts too. One of our most important players in the first half of the season (and the second half of last season), but since then he's been a bit of a shadow of himself, ever since the transfer window came along and there was talk of a bigger club coming in for him, he's been playing as though his mind's more on what he can spend his Championship wage on.

Mind you it was only Blackpool that (allegedly) made an offer for him, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement, contract offers from Blackpool probably class as junk mail these days.

 

[Murphy]

55
54
53
52
51 Safety 2012/1013
50 Safety 2013/2014, Safety 2005/2006
49 Portsmouth, Wimbledon.
48 Safety 2010/2011 Morecambe
47 Safety 2006/2007
46 Dagenham.
45 Safety 2011/2012, Safety 2009/2010 Mansfield, Accrington.
44
43 Safety 2007/2008 Oxford, Cambridge.
42 Safety 2008/2009.
41
40 Carlisle
39 Safety 2004/2005
38
37 Cheltenham, Tranmere, York.
36
35
34
33 Hartlepool


Safety in 08/09 is factoring out Luton's 30 points deduction/ Safety 06/07 is factoring out Boston's 10 point deduction.

Updated "real league table" following last night and inspiration from the "real league table" thread. I think everyone still has to be looking at 50 points really, although part of me reckons 48 might be enough depending on how inconsistent everyone is.

Weekend Fixtures:

Accrington Stanley vs York City
Carlisle United vs Morecambe.
Cheltenham Town vs Exeter City.
Hartlepool United vs Mansfield Town
Shrewsbury Town vs Oxford United
Southend United vs Cambridge United
Stevenage vs Dagenham & Redbridge
Tranmere Rovers vs Burton Albion.

*Edited because I can't read things properly.

 

[Stagat]

We're at Hartlepool, Murphy

Cambridge are away at Southend.

according to the BBC

 

[Vanni]

Murphy - Yep, I'm also thinking 48 points should be enough. Which is why I reckon Pools are down as they would need to get 15 points out of the 9 games they're still to play. Looks like Mansfield and the other clubs on 45 or more are safe as it would take some doing not to get 3/4 points more.

 

[AdamStag]

We've still got Tranmere, Portsmouth and York at home and Hartlepool, Cambridge and Accrington away in the 9 games remaining.

If we can't get 4/5 points from those games then we probably would deserve to go down.

 

[AdamStag]

Odds -

Looks like the bookies are thinking the same as everyone else - it's between 5 sides

Hartlepool 1/10
Cheltenham 13/10
Tranere 6/4
York 5/1
Carlisle 6/1


Dagenham 25/1
Mansfield, Cambridge, Oxford 28/1

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

We've still got Tranmere, Portsmouth and York at home and Hartlepool, Cambridge and Accrington away in the 9 games remaining.

If we can't get 4/5 points from those games then we probably would deserve to go down.

your right, but I hope yourselves or Dagenham don't just assume the job is now done and assume you will get 5 points.

I remember Shrewsbury back in 2003 who had all these 'easy' home games in hand of which only a win would probably be enough so we all just assumed to write them off, and of course they won none of them and down they went.

although after York in 2004 when they never won in an entire 2nd half of season I now never write any team off until 50 points.

We only have 9 games to go, it is very very conceivable now that any side from say Dagenham down could go all 9 games without a win, it has happened before it can easily happen now, 9 games without a win is something that can regularly happen.

only good thing for them on about 45 points is afew draws may be enough and of course 2 other sides may not reach their points total.

 

[Richard Cranium]

Just had a look and one thing of note for the Mansfield fans anyway. In 07/08 I think we went down after losing like 17 games by just 1 goal. So far this season we haven't won any game by more than 1 goal.

This season we've only scored 2 5 times and 3 once. You can see where our main problem has been. I think given our home form we will pick at least 6/7 points up at Field Mill from now until the end of the season which will see us safe.

Hartlepool is massive, they are going to be right up for this. They've slashed ticket prices to £12 too so might be a decent crowd. I think we can get a point there, Not predicting us to get anymore penalties because everytime I do Taffazolli picks the ball up inside the box and the other side get one!

 

[Richard Cranium]

AdamStag I'm at work so can't look. What odds can you get on Hartlepool to survive?

 

[mase]

We won't beat Shrewsbury, Northampton, Newport or Wycombe so we're right in the mix.

Luckily we play teams around us so need to get points from Carlisle, York, Tranmere and Wimbledon (they're prob safe but they're closer to us than top 6/7...


That being said, we seem to have done better against the teams higher up the league than those in and around us so who knows!

 

[AdamStag]

AdamStag I'm at work so can't look. What odds can you get on Hartlepool to survive?

God bless working from home

Best you can get on oddschecker is 1/7 with bet365 - so youd get £1.14 back for every £1 you put on it (according to my calculations)

 

[Wiinotfit]

God bless working from home

Best you can get on oddschecker is 1/7 with bet365 - so youd get £1.14 back for every £1 you put on it (according to my calculations)

He was on about Hartlepool to stay up they are 7/2 to do that, 1/7 for them to get relegated

 

[Vanni]

Even though I think they'll go down, those odds are very tempting. Problem is I've had enough of betting

 

[shoddycollins]

Even though I think they'll go down, those odds are very tempting. Problem is I've had enough of betting

I think the thing with Hartlepool is not that they're suddenly more likely to stay up than not, but they've certainly got themselves within fighting distance of safety, and even though we knew they were on decent form and they might close the gap a bit, they've got there faster than I at least expected. I thought maybe they'll manage to give the table a slightly more respectable look to it come May, and might even overtake one team, but essentially still be doomed. Now you think they actually have a little bit of time on their side, it's still a big ask but when we're talking about relegation it's no longer 'who will go down alongside Hartlepool?' it's just 'who will go down?'.

If Hartlepool are still in with a shout of staying up going into the last two games then they have done amazingly well under Moore, and the optimism among them seems to be growing so you'd fancy them to do it in those circumstances.

I certainly don't rate our chances on the final day if we aren't safe yet and they aren't down yet. Having Hartlepool at home on the final day no longer seems like a blessing in our favour.

 

[BigDaveCUFC]

I still think Hartlepool have gone, their results have improved because probably now they have no fear....we had that back in 2004, at somepoint when your that poor you get to a point when draws mean nothing so you just 'go for it' in every game, it doesn't matter if you leak 3-4-5 goals it is just worth going for the wins.

which at least means draws disappear, your not playing it safe and you can just focus fully of pushing on for goals, no need to keep tight, hope for a nicked 0-0 etc etc.

their downfall which also was ours is they simply have no leeway anymore for error, cannot really afford anymore slip-ups or bad runs, have to also rely on other teams messing up.

you used to take 2 steps forward, then one defeat and it was 3 steps back......If they do it fair play to them, but you'll find one defeat suddenly puts them back 7 points behind with only 7-8 games left and suddenly it looks impossible again.

 

[mowgli]

Never give in! Before the final game of last season at Torquay i was resigned to relegation to The Conference which would have meant the end of Wycombe Wanderers due to our financial position which has greatly improved this season. It's so close down the bottom of League 2 i can see it going down to goal difference which kept us up last season by 3 goals over Bristol Rovers.

 

[AdamStag]

I still think Hartlepool have gone, their results have improved because probably now they have no fear....we had that back in 2004, at somepoint when your that poor you get to a point when draws mean nothing so you just 'go for it' in every game, it doesn't matter if you leak 3-4-5 goals it is just worth going for the wins.

which at least means draws disappear, your not playing it safe and you can just focus fully of pushing on for goals, no need to keep tight, hope for a nicked 0-0 etc etc.

their downfall which also was ours is they simply have no leeway anymore for error, cannot really afford anymore slip-ups or bad runs, have to also rely on other teams messing up.

you used to take 2 steps forward, then one defeat and it was 3 steps back......If they do it fair play to them, but you'll find one defeat suddenly puts them back 7 points behind with only 7-8 games left and suddenly it looks impossible again.

Good to see you boys with a slight bit of optimism rather than the mass suicide a week ago.

However, suggesting hartlepool are "gone" after 2 straight wins with us next up with our dreadful away record is either wide of the mark or clutching at straws.

I think they will catch 1 team at least.

Id be crapping myself if I followed york, tranmere (with their run in) or Cambridge (though they should have enough to survive)

 

[shoddycollins]

Good to see you boys with a slight bit of optimism rather than the mass suicide a week ago.

However, suggesting hartlepool are "gone" after 2 straight wins with us next up with our dreadful away record is either wide of the mark or clutching at straws.

I think they will catch 1 team at least.

Id be crapping myself if I followed york, tranmere (with their run in) or Cambridge (though they should have enough to survive)

Oh Dave is our most optimistic fan. He's famed for in on these forums, just ask anyone in league one.

 

[mowgli]

Carlisle will be in a battle to stay up on the last day because of their poor goal difference.I'm just pleased i don't have to go through that again this season as i must have aged 10 years in the final few minutes waiting for the Bristol Rovers v Mansfield result i wouldn't wish that on anyone.

 

[AdamStag]

Carlisle will be in a battle to stay up on the last day because of their poor goal difference.I'm just pleased i don't have to go through that again this season as i must have aged 10 years in the final few minutes waiting for the Bristol Rovers v Mansfield result i wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Well BRISTOL only spent 25 mins or so in the relegation zone in ther entire season, just the wrong 25 minutes

 

[hellogregory]

Hartlepool will stay up imo. They'll be off the bottom within the next 2 weeks probably.

I still think we'll finish bottom, simply because we're worse than we were in the first half of the season and any time we do pick up a win, we can never back it up, especially at home. Our squad doesn't have the balls to deal with the pressure of must win home games.

For example, when we beat Tranmere, we bottled the next home game in stoppage time. After we beat Cheltenham, we choked in the next home game against Exeter. As we've just won at Northampton, we will lose on Saturday at home to Morecambe. We've never been able to string a few results together and unless we miraculously learn, we'll finish bottom.

 

[Vanni]

[QUOTE="hellogregory, post: 71285, member: 398"]Hartlepool will stay up imo. They'll be off the bottom within the next 2 weeks probably.

I still think we'll finish bottom, simply because we're worse than we were in the first half of the season and any time we do pick up a win, we can never back it up, especially at home. Our squad doesn't have the balls to deal with the pressure of must win home games.

For example, when we beat Tranmere, we bottled the next home game in stoppage time. After we beat Cheltenham, we choked in the next home game against Exeter. As we've just won at Northampton, we will lose on Saturday at home to Morecambe. We've never been able to string a few results together and unless we miraculously learn, we'll finish bottom.[/QUOTE]



You don't say?

 

[AdamStag]

The thing is Cambridge only have to string 2 wins together from the final 9. Or win 1 and draw 3 and you are onto 49. I think that should be enough