The Labour Thread

[.V.]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807174627986468866

Just the 17 point lead for the Tories now.

 

[Jockney]

Even the prospect of Labour forming a coalition government in 2020 is something of a fantasy in the current political climate (though that is bound to change radically in the intervening period), but while there are some very legitimate criticisms to be made of Corbyn/McDonnell, especially in regards to media strategy, what sort of Labour government do his biggest critics (V, Mowgli, et al) actually want? A wholesale ideological about-face or a similar set-up with a more dynamic leadership? Would you, hypothetically, be happy with someone like Clive Lewis heading up the PLP? It's all very well saying you'd rather a centre-left alternative but Corbyn is at the forefront of a popular movement that actually wants to revolutionise the national political-economic terrain. Like, who are the other individuals in the PLP that could draw upon a movement of half a million members that, in time, could make the Labour Party a genuinely left-wing party that is once more electable?

 

[.V.]

Even the prospect of Labour forming a coalition government in 2020 is something of a fantasy in the current political climate (though that is bound to change radically in the intervening period), but while there are some very legitimate criticisms to be made of Corbyn/McDonnell, especially in regards to media strategy, what sort of Labour government do his biggest critics (V, Mowgli, et al) actually want? A wholesale ideological about-face or a similar set-up with a more dynamic leadership? Would you, hypothetically, be happy with someone like Clive Lewis heading up the PLP? It's all very well saying you'd rather a centre-left alternative but Corbyn is at the forefront of a popular movement that actually wants to revolutionise the national political-economic terrain. Like, who are the other individuals in the PLP that could draw upon a movement of half a million members that, in time, could make the Labour Party a genuinely left-wing party that is once more electable?

I don't disagree with Corbyn's politics on the whole, but then I'm not the floating voter that needs to be won over in order for Labour to form a government.

I would be delighted to see a genuine social democratic Labour Party in power, but I'm sick to death of watching this cuntish government get away with punishing the most vulnerable people in society, because the Labour Party is unable to hold them to account, even when the Tories have a slender majority and May has no mandate.

You say he's at the forefront of a popular movement, but that is not apparent in either the Labour Party's poll numbers or his own poll numbers, and the gap is such that they're well outside the margin of error.

As much as I don't like it, Corbyn is to the left on the general public and Labour can't win an election that way. Osborne and Cameron recognised that the Tories couldn't win from the right of the general public, and were media savvy enough to present themselves as moderates, even though they were anything but when they returned to Downing Street.

I guess want I what is a smarter, dynamic leader who reads the political landscape better. I want a leader who voters envision as the PM. And most of all, I want this shower of shit of a government out of power, even if it means having a Blarite as PM rather than a genuine democratic socialist.

(Apologies this is more a collection of thoughts than anything else, but I have just come back from my works Christmas party.)

 

[Aber gas]

I don't disagree with Corbyn's politics on the whole, but then I'm not the floating voter that needs to be won over in order for Labour to form a government.

I would be delighted to see a genuine social democratic Labour Party in power, but I'm sick to death of watching this cuntish government get away with punishing the most vulnerable people in society, because the Labour Party is unable to hold them to account, even when the Tories have a slender majority and May has no mandate.

You say he's at the forefront of a popular movement, but that is not apparent in either the Labour Party's poll numbers or his own poll numbers, and the gap is such that they're well outside the margin of error.

As much as I don't like it, Corbyn is to the left on the general public and Labour can't win an election that way. Osborne and Cameron recognised that the Tories couldn't win from the right of the general public, and were media savvy enough to present themselves as moderates, even though they were anything but when they returned to Downing Street.

I guess want I what is a smarter, dynamic leader who reads the political landscape better. I want a leader who voters who envision as the PM. And most of all, I want this shower of shit of a government out of power, even if it means having a Blarite as PM rather than a genuine democratic socialist.

(Apologies this is more a collection of thoughts than anything else, but I have just come back from my works Christmas party.)

I'd like the Labour Party to be a revolutionary, Marxist party concerned with introducing the Uk to a post capitalist world but I still bit my tongue, whinged at the back, mumbled my discontent, held my nose and campaigned for Blair ( forgive me for I'm a sinner) and Brown ( the same). I struggle with your logic and your self fulfilling wish for failure. It's like you've just rolled your eyes and given up.
It's sad.

 

[.V.]

I'd like the Labour Party to be a revolutionary, Marxist party concerned with introducing the Uk to a post capitalist world but I still bit my tongue, whinged at the back, mumbled my discontent, held my nose and campaigned for Blair ( forgive me for I'm a sinner) and Brown ( the same). I struggle with your logic and your self fulfilling wish for failure. It's like you've just rolled your eyes and given up.
It's sad.

I see no evidence to suggest that the country wants a socialist government. This is the most left wing Labour Party that I came remember (anything after 1990 basically, given I'm 36 and wasnt all that into politics at 9 years old unsurprisingly,) and also the most unpopular.

 

[smat]

Osborne and Cameron recognised that the Tories couldn't win from the right of the general public, and were media savvy enough to present themselves as moderates

Giving them FAR too much credit IMVHO. There's a reason the media were so friendly to them and it's not because they were 'savvy'.

 

[Red]

I don't disagree with Corbyn's politics on the whole, but then I'm not the floating voter that needs to be won over in order for Labour to form a government.

I would be delighted to see a genuine social democratic Labour Party in power, but I'm sick to death of watching this cuntish government get away with punishing the most vulnerable people in society, because the Labour Party is unable to hold them to account, even when the Tories have a slender majority and May has no mandate.

You say he's at the forefront of a popular movement, but that is not apparent in either the Labour Party's poll numbers or his own poll numbers, and the gap is such that they're well outside the margin of error.

As much as I don't like it, Corbyn is to the left on the general public and Labour can't win an election that way. Osborne and Cameron recognised that the Tories couldn't win from the right of the general public, and were media savvy enough to present themselves as moderates, even though they were anything but when they returned to Downing Street.

I guess want I what is a smarter, dynamic leader who reads the political landscape better. I want a leader who voters envision as the PM. And most of all, I want this shower of shit of a government out of power, even if it means having a Blarite as PM rather than a genuine democratic socialist.

(Apologies this is more a collection of thoughts than anything else, but I have just come back from my works Christmas party.)

In what ways do you think Corbyn is on the left of the general public? Isn't it more that he's portrayed that way in the media?

 

[.V.]

In what ways do you think Corbyn is on the left of the general public? Isn't it more that he's portrayed that way in the media?

I think he has some relatively sensible social democratic policies, I just that the general public is to the right of him. It's the general public being generally more conservative in outlook, rather than him bring some ranting communist. E.g. most of the general public favour cutting welfare.

 

[Alty]

In what ways do you think Corbyn is on the left of the general public? Isn't it more that he's portrayed that way in the media?

In that his ideas on taxation, welfare, borders and defence are out of step with the majority of people.

Doesn't mean it would be impossible for him to win people round. But it's probably impossible now because the PLP have completely undermined him. He has no authority.

 

[Jockney]

I would be delighted to see a genuine social democratic Labour Party in power, but I'm sick to death of watching this cuntish government get away with punishing the most vulnerable people in society, because the Labour Party is unable to hold them to account, even when the Tories have a slender majority and May has no mandate.

I don't think appeals to Fordist notions of social democracy have any salience in contemporary political discourse. Maybe in 2010, but even if they were the agenda of a potentially-electable soft-left political party, that sort of mode of government would only provide a short-term palliative fix and, after the inevitable second major crash, the country would find itself in a far less stable political situation -- one that would probably be actively hostile to a socialist alternative.

You say he's at the forefront of a popular movement, but that is not apparent in either the Labour Party's poll numbers or his own poll numbers, and the gap is such that they're well outside the margin of error.

We are still four years off a general election and the battle that will probably decide that election, how Brexit is handled, has yet to be contested.

As much as I don't like it, Corbyn is to the left on the general public and Labour can't win an election that way. Osborne and Cameron recognised that the Tories couldn't win from the right of the general public, and were media savvy enough to present themselves as moderates, even though they were anything but when they returned to Downing Street.

Osborne and Cameron were to the right of the general public in 2015 (how many people actually wanted a hardened neo-liberal austerity package?) and won because Labour, after years of bad will, failed to offer a coherent opposition to the dominant austerity and immigration discourses. Kowtowing to anti-immigration sentiment when you have already have a Conservative government reacting affirmatively to the worst nationalistic excesses of a far-right fringe party is the best way to make Labour completely irrelevant in 2020. And that's not even what the Blairites want to do, that's the big message coming from the soft-left elements in the PLP. We're going to hand the party over to those people?

I guess want I what is a smarter, dynamic leader who reads the political landscape better. I want a leader who voters envision as the PM. And most of all, I want this shower of shit of a government out of power, even if it means having a Blarite as PM rather than a genuine democratic socialist.

The truth is that Labour probably die a death without a Corbyn figure, even with a moderate who does better in terms of electoral turnout in 2020. What Corbyn can do in the mid-to-long term is help shift the ideological terrain further to the left and build a base for a new generation of rad-left activists and politicos. I have concerns over how effectively he can manage to do that, but I don't see many other alternatives within the PLP that would be able to offer a persuasive short-term positive vision for the country, never mind something that is genuinely left-wing and sustainable.

 

[.V.]

Latest polling average

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/808340818184507392

Latest personal polling on TM and JC

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/807654059402493952

 

[Abertawe]

Polls are old hat. Been proven to be bollox. Stop posting polls. It's old politics.

 

[.V.]

Polls are old hat. Been proven to be bollox. Stop posting polls. It's old politics.

http://stattrek.com/m/statistics/dictionary.aspx?definition=margin of error

 

[Aber gas]

Oh goody polls. Tell me more about losing votes to UKIP.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/809533815387541504

 

[TheMinsterman]

Oh goody polls. Tell me more about losing votes to UKIP.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/809533815387541504

Bloody polls, coming over here, undermining the credibility of our Labour Party.

 

[Abertawe]

Polls undermining the credibility of polls since 2016. Old hat, no longer relevant.

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

It's a pretty parlous state of affairs if we're reduced to citing ward by-election results as proof that there's life in this old dog (every other indicator suggests it ought to be put down). The national position for Labour is dire and no mistake (I say that as someone with a fair bit of time for ole Corbs).

 

[Aber gas]

Ok. So we take these "other indicators " as a true reflection of Labour's parlous state but ignore actual election results.
Labour wins by-elections, mayorships, councils and it's irrelevant or despite Corbyn.
Labour loses anything and it's all sage nods and #disasterforCorbyn.
It's sad.

 

[Alty]

Ok. So we take these "other indicators " as a true reflection of Labour's parlous state but ignore actual election results.
Labour wins by-elections, mayorships, councils and it's irrelevant or despite Corbyn.
Labour loses anything and it's all sage nods and #disasterforCorbyn.
It's sad.

There hasn't really been a proper electoral test of May vs Corbyn. By elections are all well and good (not that the Parliamentary ones have been all that promising for Labour) but they tend to be very locally driven and/or take on a single issue character.

I suspect Corbyn is a bit more popular than the polls indicate, but for all the polls have been off in recent years, we're not talking about by miles. EU referendum indicated a very narrow win one way - it was actually a narrow win the other. Likewise US election. 2015 General Election said Tory largest party with no majority. Turns out they squeezed a very narrow majority out of it. The polls need to be SPECTACULARLY wrong if they stay at current levels for Corbs to win a General Election.

It's not impossible that they could narrow depending on Brexit progress. If the UK ends up in limbo or some EEA arrangement that satisfies virtually nobody then I could imagine a hung Parliament. But I think the probability of a Labour majority Government under Corbyn is virtually nil.

 

[Aber gas]

There hasn't really been a proper electoral test of May vs Corbyn. By elections are all well and good (not that the Parliamentary ones have been all that promising for Labour) but they tend to be very locally driven and/or take on a single issue character.

I suspect Corbyn is a bit more popular than the polls indicate, but for all the polls have been off in recent years, we're not talking about by miles. EU referendum indicated a very narrow win one way - it was actually a narrow win the other. Likewise US election. 2015 General Election said Tory largest party with no majority. Turns out they squeezed a very narrow majority out of it. The polls need to be SPECTACULARLY wrong if they stay at current levels for Corbs to win a General Election.

It's not impossible that they could narrow depending on Brexit progress. If the UK ends up in limbo or some EEA arrangement that satisfies virtually nobody then I could imagine a hung Parliament. But I think the probability of a Labour majority Government under Corbyn is virtually nil.

That's fine and a perfectly reasonable opinion. What I find frustrating from my comrades on the left is the selective use of results to confirm their defeatist attitude. The council by elections aren't particularly significant nationally but they do go against the accepted narrative that Labour is haemorrhaging votes to UKIP in the north. These results are then written off as insignificant. I'd bet good money that if the results were reversed it would have been seized upon as more evidence of Labour's decline or perhaps #disasterforCorbyn.
It's exasperating.

 

[.V.]

Tory lead down to 7 points

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/810201247479431168

Must be the leather trousers

 

[The Paranoid Pineapple]

That's fine and a perfectly reasonable opinion. What I find frustrating from my comrades on the left is the selective use of results to confirm their defeatist attitude. The council by elections aren't particularly significant nationally but they do go against the accepted narrative that Labour is haemorrhaging votes to UKIP in the north. These results are then written off as insignificant. I'd bet good money that if the results were reversed it would have been seized upon as more evidence of Labour's decline or perhaps #disasterforCorbyn.
It's exasperating.

The problem with ward by-elections is that the electorate is so small that individually they really can't be used as any kind of indicator. Perhaps if some kind of trend or pattern emerges then you might be able to discern something from them but even then it's a bit tricky (and tbh Labour do appear to be losing more than they're winning on this front). Don't get me wrong, I think your frustrations are fair - it's true that Corbyn's detractors are rather selective in what they choose to hammer him with and my personal view is that the UKIP threat to Labour in the north may be somewhat overstated but I do worry about the party at the moment. With the headlines largely centred around Brexit I think there's a real risk of them being squeezed as their position seems to me to be a bit muddled and incoherent (at least in comparison to the Lib Dems and UKIP, who have carved out positions on opposite ends of the spectrum). To some extent this is borne out of necessity (their supporter base is split on Brexit - metropolitan Remain vs provincial Leave) and over time a non-committal stance may even play into their hands. May is being given the benefit of the doubt at the moment but this may not hold if the economy takes a turn for the worse or splits begin to re-emerge in the Tory party over her handling of the issue. But for the moment Labour look at a low ebb and a difficult beast to revive. I don't know that Corbyn - partly because of his deficiencies as a leader and partly because the Parliamentary Labour Party utterly undermined him by moving against him so early - is very well placed to turn this ship around (completely fair of course to question whether there's anyone who'd make a better fist of this. The evidence so far is inconclusive).

Anyway, following Jamie Reed's resignation I suppose all eyes are on Copeland. Parliamentary by-election results should also, of course, be treated with caution, but the electorate is much larger and they understandably attract a fair bit of media attention so this is an important test for Labour. If they're in reasonable health as an opposition it's a seat they should certainly be holding. Let's hope they can stave off some negative headlines.

 

[Aber gas]

The problem with ward by-elections is that the electorate is so small that individually they really can't be used as any kind of indicator. Perhaps if some kind of trend or pattern emerges then you might be able to discern something from them but even then it's a bit tricky (and tbh Labour do appear to be losing more than they're winning on this front). Don't get me wrong, I think your frustrations are fair - it's true that Corbyn's detractors are rather selective in what they choose to hammer him with and my personal view is that the UKIP threat to Labour in the north may be somewhat overstated but I do worry about the party at the moment. With the headlines largely centred around Brexit I think there's a real risk of them being squeezed as their position seems to me to be a bit muddled and incoherent (at least in comparison to the Lib Dems and UKIP, who have carved out positions on opposite ends of the spectrum). To some extent this is borne out of necessity (their supporter base is split on Brexit - metropolitan Remain vs provincial Leave) and over time a non-committal stance may even play into their hands. May is being given the benefit of the doubt at the moment but this may not hold if the economy takes a turn for the worse or splits begin to re-emerge in the Tory party over her handling of the issue. But for the moment Labour look at a low ebb and a difficult beast to revive. I don't know that Corbyn - partly because of his deficiencies as a leader and partly because the Parliamentary Labour Party utterly undermined him by moving against him so early - is very well placed to turn this ship around (completely fair of course to question whether there's anyone who'd make a better fist of this. The evidence so far is inconclusive).

Anyway, following Jamie Reed's resignation I suppose all eyes are on Copeland. Parliamentary by-election results should also, of course, be treated with caution, but the electorate is much larger and they understandably attract a fair bit of media attention so this is an important test for Labour. If they're in reasonable health as an opposition it's a seat they should certainly be holding. Let's hope they can stave off some negative headlines.

I think we'll win in Copeland with a slightly increased majority. I'm not sure what to say about Brexit. I think the most sensible thing for us to do is accept that we are leaving and make the best of it.
There is a massive grass roots left wing movement happening at the moment. Unions are flexing muscles, activists are getting organised. All is not lost.
I'm positive as always.

 

[.V.]

I consider myself a social democrat, I work in the public sector and have been a union member for over a decade. I'm not particularly active in politics, but I do have a strong interest in it, and personally, I've not experienced any of this left wing movement in my life I'm afraid. Is the movement truly reaching out to people on the left, such as myself, or is it just a case of echo chambers?

Gas loyalties aside *spit* I've got a lot of time for you Aber, I'm just not seeing this movement you speak of.

 

[smat]

I'm not sure what to say about Brexit.

You're Labour through and through

There is a massive grass roots left wing movement happening at the moment. Unions are flexing muscles, activists are getting organised. All is not lost.
I'm positive as always.

Are you a member of Momentum? Interested in how disastrous the takeover by chubby, greying and stupid Trotskyist Lord Footballs from the 80s has been for the younger members.

 

[Aber gas]

You're Labour through and through


Are you a member of Momentum? Interested in how disastrous the takeover by chubby, greying and stupid Trotskyist Lord Footballs from the 80s has been for the younger members.

I assume you're referring to members of Militant tendency. I'm not sure that's a fair description. The general supporting of strikes, labour movement and the defying of ideological austerity are generally things I admire.
It's true that some members who were expelled by Kinnock have been welcomed back but they're certainly not running things and I don't consider them a negative influence.

 

[Aber gas]

I consider myself a social democrat, I work in the public sector and have been a union member for over a decade. I'm not particularly active in politics, but I do have a strong interest in it, and personally, I've not experienced any of this left wing movement in my life I'm afraid. Is the movement truly reaching out to people on the left, such as myself, or is it just a case of echo chambers?

Gas loyalties aside *spit* I've got a lot of time for you Aber, I'm just not seeing this movement you speak of.

As I have for you. I dunno why you haven't seen it. You're aware of the policies and the sort of stuff that Corbyn stands for so I'm not sure what you mean by engaging with you. I thought it was more of an issue of style with you rather than ideas or engagement?
Despite your misgivings about the leadership of the party I'd hope you'd hold your nose and vote or even campaign for Labour like I did under Blair. Brown etc..

 

[smat]

I assume you're referring to members of Militant tendency. I'm not sure that's a fair description. The general supporting of strikes, labour movement and the defying of ideological austerity are generally things I admire.
It's true that some members who were expelled by Kinnock have been welcomed back but they're certainly not running things and I don't consider them a negative influence.

I'm referring to the vote in December to use a traditional delegate system (favoured by ye olde leftists) as opposed to direct, online democracy (favoured by Lansman and the youth element). Owen Jones talks about it here https://www.theguardian.com/global/...omentum-hope-saved-saboteurs-sectarian-labour

 

[Abertawe]

I'd love to punch Owen Jones, annoying little gimp.

 

[mowgli]

I'd love to punch Owen Jones, annoying little gimp.

Whenever i've seen him he never lets other guests on Newsnight or Daily politics get a word in as he constantly interrupts when they give their view on something but if they try doing the same to him he has a little hissy fit like a little child,when i see he's on i turn over.